CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-03-2019

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20.03.2019
23:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, March 21, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin    
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate February 5% 5%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed February 39.1 14.5
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin    
09:00 Switzerland SNB Press Conference    
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) February 1% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) February 4.2% 3.3%
09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln February 15.759 0.05
12:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m January 0.3% 0.5%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1776 1772
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 229 225
12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey March -4.1 4.5
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators February 0% 0.1%
15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence March -7.4 -7.1
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y February 0.2% 0.3%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y February 0.8% 0.8%
21:45
New Zealand: GDP y/y, Quarter IV 2.3% (forecast 2.5%)
21:45
New Zealand: GDP q/q, Quarter IV 0.6% (forecast 0.6%)
20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, March 21, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin    
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate February 5% 5%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed February 39.1 14.5
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin    
09:00 Switzerland SNB Press Conference    
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) February 1% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) February 4.2% 3.3%
09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln February 15.759 0.05
12:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m January 0.3% 0.5%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1776 1772
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 229 225
12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey March -4.1 4.5
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators February 0% 0.1%
15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence March -7.4 -7.1
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y February 0.2% 0.3%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y February 0.8% 0.8%
20:13
Major US stock indexes finished trading mainly in the red

Major US stock indices are mostly down. The pressure was exerted on the market by statements by the US President that US tariffs on Chinese goods may persist for a long period of time, as well as the pessimistic profit forecast for FedEx Corp., which raised concerns about global growth.

In addition, the focus of market participants were the outcome of the Fed meeting. As expected, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged, between 2.25% and 2.50%, but signaled a cautious approach to further changes in monetary policy in the context of low inflation. Investors found the Fed tone softer than expected. The Fed signaled that interest rates will not rise this year, and also said it predicts one increase in rates in 2020.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (19 out of 30). The Goldman Sachs Group (GS; -3.37%) was an outsider. The growth leader was The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, + 1.08%).

Most sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The largest decline was shown by the financial sector (-1.2%). The base materials sector grew the most (+ 0.9%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 25,745.67 -141.71 -0.55%

S & P 500 2,824.23 -8.34 -0.29%

Nasdaq 100 7,728.97 +5.02 +0.07%

19:01
DJIA +0.01% 25,889.66 +2.28 Nasdaq +0.55% 7,766.34 +42.39 S&P +0.25% 2,839.69 +7.12
18:00
U.S.: Fed Interest Rate Decision , 2.5% (forecast 2.5%)
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -32.99 7291.01 -0.45% DAX -184.52 11603.89 -1.57% CAC 40 -43.24 5382.66 -0.80%
15:42
FOMC dot plot likely to show possibility of further rate increases - HSBC

HSBC analysts suggest that the FOMC will likely maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at the March meeting, but the median “dots” could show the possibility of further rate increases. 

  • “The Fed’s narrative on interest rates has been clear since the dovish pivot at the January FOMC meeting: monetary policy is currently in a good place, and the FOMC will remain patient in assessing the need for any further adjustments to the policy stance. The March FOMC meeting is therefore likely to reinforce this.”
  • “The Summary of Economic Projections will be released at the same time and the median “dots” could show that further rate hikes are likely, although less so than in December.”

15:32
May's request to extend Article 50 came too late to make decision Thursday - Bloomberg quotes EU official
14:37
German Foreign Minister Maas: There will be a decision tomorrow on Brexit extension – Reuters
14:34
EIA’s report reveals unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude inventories tumbled by 9.589 million barrels in the week ended March 15. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.750 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 4.587 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 2.500 million barrels. Distillate stocks declined by 4.127 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.500 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.100 million barrels a day. 

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, up by 186,000 barrels per day from the previous week.


14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, March -9.589 (forecast 0.309)
13:37
UK PM May's spokesman: It is up to the Speaker to determine whether we have come up with something substantially different for a new vote

  • May wants to bring third meaningful vote as soon as possible
  • There are no plans to extend an implementation phase
  • PM's belief is that a long extension is not the way to go

13:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.27%, Nasdaq -0.03% S&P -0.17%
13:29
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.04%, NASDAQ futures +0.03%

U.S. stock-index flat on wednesday, as investors awaited the latest policy decision and guidance from the Fed.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,608.92

+42.07

+0.20%

Hang Seng

29,320.97

-145.31

-0.49%

Shanghai

3,090.64

-0.3347

-0.01%

S&P/ASX

6,165.30

-19.50

-0.32%

FTSE

7,334.43

+10.43

+0.14%

CAC

5,409.20

-16.70

-0.31%

DAX

11,596.91

-191.50

-1.62%

Crude

$58.83


-0.78%

Gold

$1,307.80


+0.11%

12:49
European Commission President Juncker: Told May European Parliament elections must be held in UK if the extension date is after May 23
12:48
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

209

-0.02(-0.01%)

920

ALCOA INC.

AA

28.95

0.33(1.15%)

2951

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

55.95

-0.06(-0.11%)

7011

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,770.90

9.05(0.51%)

55988

American Express Co

AXP

111.3

-1.37(-1.22%)

531

Apple Inc.

AAPL

186.5

-0.03(-0.02%)

67103

AT&T Inc

T

30.66

-0.02(-0.07%)

7108

Boeing Co

BA

375

1.57(0.42%)

26152

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

133.2

-0.95(-0.71%)

3319

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

53.41

0.10(0.19%)

1891

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

65.49

-0.14(-0.21%)

6597

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

80.64

-0.23(-0.28%)

1099

Facebook, Inc.

FB

161.39

-0.18(-0.11%)

36922

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

170

-11.41(-6.29%)

195856

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

12.65

-0.03(-0.24%)

28667

General Electric Co

GE

10.21

0.02(0.20%)

43067

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

38.15

-0.12(-0.31%)

5588

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,197.00

-1.85(-0.15%)

6762

Home Depot Inc

HD

184.19

0.06(0.03%)

970

Intel Corp

INTC

54.17

0.00(0.00%)

28007

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

140.75

0.26(0.19%)

1090

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

138.2

-0.24(-0.17%)

1539

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

106.54

-0.26(-0.24%)

5912

McDonald's Corp

MCD

183.48

0.37(0.20%)

156

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

117.5

-0.15(-0.13%)

12409

Nike

NKE

87.75

0.06(0.07%)

8993

Pfizer Inc

PFE

42.09

-0.21(-0.50%)

2156

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

102

0.10(0.10%)

1107

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

268.7

1.23(0.46%)

40794

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

257.3

0.17(0.07%)

591

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

99.45

-0.40(-0.40%)

3141

Walt Disney Co

DIS

110.4

0.40(0.36%)

132642

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

36.1

0.17(0.47%)

6487

12:39
Initiations before the market open

Amazon (AMZN) initiated with a Outperform at Evercore ISI; target $1965

Home Depot (HD) initiated with a Outperform at Evercore ISI; target $215

Walmart (WMT) initiated with a In-line at Evercore ISI; target $95

12:38
Downgrades before the market open

FedEx (FDX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; target lowered to $202

12:31
Company News: FedEx (FDX) quarterly results miss analysts’ expectations

FedEx (FDX) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $3.03 per share (versus $3.72 in Q3 FY 2018), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.10.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $17.010 bln (+2.9% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $17.697 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for FY 2019, lowering EPS to $15.10-15.90 from $15.50-16.60 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $15.91.

FDX fell to $169.40 (-6.62%) in pre-market trading.

12:15
UK PM May: I have written to Tusk this morning informing him UK seeks extension until June 30
  • Not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June
  • Government intends to bring forward proposals for third meaningful vote
  • UK policy remains to leave the EU in an orderly way


The full letter:


12:11
EU Commission document says Brexit extension to 30 June would be legally and politically difficult - Reuters

  • Main options for EU leaders are to delay Brexit until before May 23 or at least until the end of 2019
  • Any extension... should either last until May 23 or should be significantly longer and require (EU) election (in the UK) on May 23
  • EU should offer only one extension; multiple extensions would keep EU in limbo 

12:06
China will strive to achieve 2019 economic targets - Chinese Premier Li Keqiang

China will strive to achieve its economic development targets for 2019, state television reported on Wednesday, quoting the cabinet after a meeting chaired by the country's Premier Li Keqiang.

According to the report, Chinese Premier said the government aimed to "maintain steady economic operations and promote high-quality development".

China will speed up tax and fee cuts and push reforms to help shore up the confidence of companies, he said, adding that the government would adjust tax rebates for exports of goods and services.

China is targeting economic growth of 6.0-6.5 percent for 2019. In 2018, the Chinese economy grew 6.6 percent, the weakest in 28 years.

11:54
UK Treasury minister Stride: Brexit delay into summer could affect spending review
11:47
German finance minister Scholz: Germany well prepared for Brexit, trade impact
11:29
UK factory order growth slows more than expected in March

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its monthly manufacturing survey on Wednesday, which revealed the UK’s factory order book balance fell to +1 in March 2019 from +6 in the previous month. This was still comfortably above the long-run average of -13%.

Economist had forecast the reading to come in at+2.

According to the report, expectations for output growth over the next quarter reduced softly (to +7 from this month from +8 in February), while export order growth accelerated (to +8 from +1). In addition, the present stocks of finished goods rose further (to +11 from +10) and expectations for price inflation for the coming three months weakened noticeably to their slowest pace since September 2016 (to +7 from +22).

11:00
United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, March 1 (forecast 2)
10:39
GBP guided by the Brexit developments – Danske Bank

Piet P.H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that in the current environment, GBP remains in the hands of Brexit and at the moment, EUR/GBP seems stuck in the 0.85- 0.87 range.

“As an extension is already more or less priced in at this point, we expect any decision on (at least on the principles of) an extension will only be marginally positive for the GBP and EUR/GBP should remain above 0.85, in our view. If EU27 rejects an extension, which we cannot rule out given the more hawkish Brexit stance among EU27 leaders compared to the EU Commission (10% probability), we should see EUR/GBP break above 0.87, as markets will start pricing in a higher risk of a no deal Brexit again.”

10:19
BlackRock: Investors are set to gain as China reworks its equity markets

Investors are set to gain as China is pushing for new ways that private sector money can fund its domestic companies, according to Helen Zhu, head of Chinese equities at BlackRock.

Her analysis comes amid Beijing's plans to introduce a new stock board for start-ups in Shanghai, which is being billed as a pilot program to test more market-oriented measures before rolling them out in China's other stock exchanges. The new science and technology innovation board was announced by President Xi Jinping in November and is expected to be launched by June.

"It's really opening the door to a very new and promising financing channel over the medium to longer term. And I think people will read that positively. I think the asset prices will respond accordingly as well." Zhu said.

09:59
US-China trade talks dented – Danske Bank

Piet P.H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that the road to a ceasefire to the US-China trade war was dented yesterday, but remains on track to a solution.

“Senior officials were said to have reported that Trump-Xi may only meet in June and not, as recently reported, April. However, talks are still ongoing and the discussions at this final stage are difficult. Next week, the US’ Lightizer and Mnuchin are travelling to Beijing and similarly, the following week China’s He is going to the US in an attempt to solve the disputes, which are currently said to focus on the intellectual property rights, drug data and patents as well as the enforcement metrics.”

09:44
UK consumer price growth accelerated in February

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.9% in February 2019, up from 1.8% in January 2019. Economists had expected a 1.8% increase.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in February 2019, unchanged from January 2019.

Rising prices for food, alcohol and tobacco, and across a range of recreational and cultural goods produced the largest upward contributions to change in the rate between January and February 2019.

The largest, offsetting, downward contribution came from clothing and footwear, with prices rising between January and February 2019 but by less than between the same two months a year ago.

09:30
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , February 2.2% (forecast 2.2%)
09:30
United Kingdom: HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y, February 1.8% (forecast 1.9%)
09:30
United Kingdom: HICP, m/m, February 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), February 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, February 0.7% (forecast 0.7%)
09:30
United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, February 1.9% (forecast 1.8%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), February 0.6% (forecast 0.9%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, February 2.5% (forecast 2.5%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , February 3.7% (forecast 4.3%)
09:14
Canada inflation likely to firm slightly to 1.5% in February - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Canadian inflation to firm slightly to 1.5% in February vs 1.4% in January, reflecting a 0.7% increase in prices on the month.

“Gasoline prices lend a strong boost (+4.0% m/m), allowing for a lower drag from overall energy price deflation. We expect solid gains in food prices (+0.3% m/m) on the back of the weakening currency and stronger US prices. Such gains push food price inflation higher to 3.1% y/y. Core inflation measures are likely to be stable to lower. We expect unchanged BoC core metrics on average (1.9%) with risks skewed to 1.8%.”

09:00
Japanese government downgrades its economic assessment for the month of March

In its latest monthly economic report, the Japanese government downgraded its view of the economy for the first time since 2016; citing recent weakness in exports and industrial production.

The Cabinet office states that the economy is in a gradual recovery but exports and output are showing signs of weakness.

08:40
Chinese companies are defaulting on their debts at an 'unprecedented' level

An economic slowdown and extremely tight credit conditions pushed corporate debt to a record high in China last year, according to experts.

Defaults for Chinese corporate bonds — issued in both U.S. dollars and the Chinese yuan — soared last year, according to numbers from two banks.

Yuan-denominated debt rose to an "unprecedented" 119.6 billion yuan ($17.8 billion) — four times more than 2017, according to a February report by Singapore bank DBS.

Japanese bank Nomura's estimates were even higher, putting the size of defaults in onshore bonds — or yuan-denominated bonds — at 159.6 billion yuan ($23.8 billion) last year. That number is roughly four times more than its 2017 estimate.

Offshore corporate dollar bonds, or U.S. dollar-denominated debt issued by Chinese companies, followed the same trend. Nomura said the amount of such debt rose to $7 billion in 2018, from none the year before.

08:22
USD/JPY is bid near term - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY pair is a bid near term as it is holding over a near term channel at 111.17 and while above here should chip away at resistance.

“Immediate resistance is 112.23, the 6th December low, the 112.43 55 quarter moving average and recent high at 113.71. We have a 5 month resistance line also at 113.05. We remain unable to rule out a deeper retracement to the 55 day MA and the 2 month uptrend at 110.16/23, which should hold for an upside bias to be preserved.”

08:10
Long Brexit delay won't solve uncertainty - UK education minister Hinds

Education Secretary Damian Hinds said, a long delay to Britain’s departure date from the European Union would not provide certainty.

Britain is currently due to leave the European Union on March 29 and British Prime Minister Theresa May will not request a long delay to Brexit.

“I don’t see how a long delay gives certainty. Actually we’ve had long time already... People are a bit tired of waiting for parliament to get our act together and get the deal passed. Unless and until a deal is finalised, there remains the prospect of the risk of no deal.” Hinds told.

07:59
EUR/USD could get a boost on Fed's earlier than anticipated end to QT - Nordea

Nordea Research discusses the USD tactical outlook around FOMC policy meeting.

"Most focus this week will be given to the FOMC meeting, as the market will be looking for signs on how, when and if the quantitative tightening will end. We judge that the current consensus expects the Fed to end QT by Q4-2019. Any hints on an earlier exit from the QT programme will give our slightly positive EUR/USD view a boost. Market sentiment has brightened and the FOMC may decide to keep the announcement of QT details for a rainy day, but details could also be announced as early as next week. Our baseline remains QT tapering starting in Q3 and ending in Q4 with excess reserves around 1.000bn. It will be negative if the Fed announces that excess reserves will continue to fall after the end of QT," Nordea adds.

07:39
British Prime Minister Theresa May to request short delay to Brexit

British Prime Minister Theresa May will request a short delay to Brexit in a letter to the European Union on Wednesday, the BBC and Sky reported.

The delay, nearly three years since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, leaves the Brexit divorce uncertain with options including leaving with May's deal, a longer delay, a disruptive exit, or even another referendum.

Just 9 days before the March 29 exit date, May is due to write to European Council President Donald Tusk to ask for a delay.

But the ultimate length of the delay was unclear amid the political chaos in London, with the BBC reporting that May would not ask for a long delay.

07:19
Germany producer price index unexpectedly fell in February

Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said, in February 2019 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.6% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In January 2019 the annual rate of change all over also had been 2.6%.

Compared with the preceding month January 2019 the overall index decreased by 0.1% in February 2019 (+0.4% in January 2019 and -0.4% in December 2018). Economists had expected a 0.2% increase.

In February 2019 the price indices of all main industrial groups increased compared with February 2018: Energy prices rose by 7.5% (-0.2% compared with January 2019). Prices of durable consumer goods as well as prices of capital goods were up 1.6%. Prices of intermediate goods increased by 1.1% (-0.1% compared with January 2019) and of non-durable consumer goods by 0.8%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 1.3% up on February 2018 and 0.1% up compared with January 2019.

07:18
European Commission president Juncker: highly probable that Britain will not leave EU on March 29th

  • as far as I know, letter from UK PM May has not yet arrived

  • there will be no negotiations on Brexit deal

07:00
Germany: Producer Price Index (YoY), February 2.6% (forecast 2.9%)
07:00
Germany: Producer Price Index (MoM), February -0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
06:25
Options levels on wednesday, March 20, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1474 (1723)

$1.1459 (1337)

$1.1444 (344)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1348

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1289 (3954)

$1.1244 (3038)

$1.1197 (2823)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 5 is 71851 contracts (according to data from March, 19) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (4643);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3402 (635)

$1.3378 (419)

$1.3356 (793)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3251

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3171 (409)

$1.3142 (1098)

$1.3110 (680)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 5 is 23809 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (4404);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 5 is 26483 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4086);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

05:02
Japan: Coincident Index, January 97.9
05:02
Japan: Leading Economic Index , January 95.9 (forecast 95.9)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 67.47 0.33
WTI 59.25 0
Silver 15.34 0.13
Gold 1306.355 0.23
Palladium 1588.63 0.76
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -17.65 21566.85 -0.08
Hang Seng 57.27 29466.28 0.19
KOSPI -1.87 2177.62 -0.09
ASX 200 -5.7 6184.8 -0.09
FTSE 100 24.81 7324 0.34
DAX 131.35 11788.41 1.13
Dow Jones -26.72 25887.38 -0.1
S&P 500 -0.37 2832.57 -0.01
NASDAQ Composite 9.47 7723.95 0.12
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.70862 -0.18
EURJPY 126.449 0.1
EURUSD 1.1349 0.13
GBPJPY 147.757 0.13
GBPUSD 1.32626 0.14
NZDUSD 0.68499 0.01
USDCAD 1.33208 -0.12
USDCHF 0.99925 -0.19
USDJPY 111.392 -0.04

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