CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-11-2018

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15.11.2018
23:30
Schedule for today, Friday, November 16, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI October 0.5% 0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October 0.9% 1.1%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y October 2.1% 2.2%
13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases September 2.82  
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) September -0.4% 0.3%
14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization October 78.1% 78.2%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) October 0.3% 0.2%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY October 5.1%  
18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count November 886  
21:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows September 108.2  
21:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows September 131.8  
21:30
New Zealand: Business NZ PMI, October 53.5
21:22
Major US stock indexes finished trading in positive territory

Major US stock indexes have risen significantly, helped by the rally in the technology sector and the base materials sector, as well as favorable data on US retail sales.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.8% in October, after declining by 0.1% in September, as households bought electronics and household appliances. Economists had forecast a growth rate of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, retail sales grew by 4.6% after rising 4.2% earlier. With the exception of cars, gasoline, building materials and food, retail sales rose 0.3% last month. These so-called major retail sales most closely correspond to the consumer spending component of GDP. The retail sales report says that consumer spending retained most of its strong momentum at the beginning of the fourth quarter, probably keeping the economy on the path of strong growth, despite the trade deficit and the housing market, which is expected to worsen.

In addition, the focus was on statements by Fed Chairman Powell, who gave a positive assessment of the US economy, which can be regarded as the Fed's intention to continue raising interest rates next month. “The US economy is in good shape,” Powell said, adding that the last employment report for October was “very strong.”

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (20 of 30). The leader of growth were shares of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO + 5.46%). Walmart Inc. shares turned out to be an outsider. (WMT, -2.20%).

Most sectors of the S & P showed an increase. The technological sector grew the most (+ 1.8%). The largest decline recorded sector conglomerates (-1.0%)

At the time of closing:

Dow 25,289.27 +208.77 +0.83%

S & P 500 2,730.20 +28.62 +.06%

Nasdaq 100 7,259.03 +122.64 +1.72%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, November 16, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI October 0.5% 0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October 0.9% 1.1%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y October 2.1% 2.2%
13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases September 2.82  
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) September -0.4% 0.3%
14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization October 78.1% 78.2%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) October 0.3% 0.2%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY October 5.1%  
18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count November 886  
21:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows September 108.2  
21:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows September 131.8  
20:04
DJIA +0.49% 25,203.77 +123.27 Nasdaq +1.35% 7,232.92 +96.53 S&P +0.62% 2,718.27 +16.69
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +4.22 7038.01 +0.06% DAX -58.86 11353.67 -0.52% CAC 40 -35.23 5033.62 -0.70%
16:01
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 10.3 million barrels from the previous week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 1.4 million barrels last week.

16:00
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, November 10.270 (forecast 3.182)
15:15
U.S. Treasury to announce on Thursday sanctions on 17 Saudis for their roles in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi -source with knowledge - Reuters
15:00
U.S.: Business inventories , September 0.3% (forecast 0.3%)
14:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.75%, Nasdaq -0.41%, S&P -0.72%
14:29
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.15%, NASDAQ futures +0.06%

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Wednesday,  as declines in technology sector, led by Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB),  offset upbeat earnings reports from Walmart Inc (WMT) and Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), as well as better-than-expected retail sales data.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,803.62

-42.86

-0.20%

Hang Seng

26,103.34

+448.91

+1.75%

Shanghai

2,668.17

+35.93

+1.36%

S&P/ASX

5,736.00

+3.20

+0.06%

FTSE

7,038.41

+4.62

+0.07%

CAC

5,041.90

-26.95

-0.53%

DAX

1,405.79

-6.74

-0.06%

Crude

$56.46


+0.37%

Gold

$1,212.00


+0.16%

13:57
Employment in Canada decreased by 23,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP Canada National Employment Report

“Hiring slowed significantly this month,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Despite steep declines in trade, natural resources and mining, and leisure and hospitality, we did see some solid growth in education and healthcare, manufacturing and professional services.”

13:56
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

201.2

3.14(1.59%)

1499

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

59.11

0.01(0.02%)

2133

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,590.14

-8.87(-0.55%)

89659

Apple Inc.

AAPL

187.94

1.14(0.61%)

404467

AT&T Inc

T

30.54

0.03(0.10%)

18800

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

12.83

0.12(0.94%)

24040

Boeing Co

BA

342

-2.72(-0.79%)

6816

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

125.36

0.26(0.21%)

3921

Chevron Corp

CVX

114.44

-0.16(-0.14%)

1616

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

46.12

1.79(4.04%)

235586

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

63.16

-0.34(-0.54%)

72155

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

145.42

-1.80(-1.22%)

3401

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

77.3

-0.09(-0.12%)

4147

Facebook, Inc.

FB

141.5

-2.72(-1.89%)

167881

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.6

0.06(0.52%)

31114

General Electric Co

GE

8.28

-0.04(-0.48%)

209339

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

35.08

-0.15(-0.43%)

4020

Goldman Sachs

GS

202.5

0.01(0.00%)

8767

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

23.75

0.02(0.08%)

560

Home Depot Inc

HD

180

0.10(0.06%)

13028

Intel Corp

INTC

47.11

0.02(0.04%)

21750

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

120.39

0.19(0.16%)

2015

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

144.16

-0.09(-0.06%)

556

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

108.25

0.92(0.86%)

73457

McDonald's Corp

MCD

183.55

-0.30(-0.16%)

294

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

104.88

-0.09(-0.09%)

35506

Pfizer Inc

PFE

42.78

-0.13(-0.30%)

1808

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

93.1

-0.39(-0.42%)

2320

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

66.83

-0.21(-0.31%)

590

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

344.25

0.25(0.07%)

34844

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.73

-0.03(-0.06%)

534

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

123.41

0.37(0.30%)

1281

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

32.9

-0.01(-0.03%)

41850

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

264.48

-0.48(-0.18%)

1140

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

58.91

-0.03(-0.05%)

6121

Visa

V

139.4

0.16(0.11%)

3962

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

102.4

0.87(0.86%)

586369

Walt Disney Co

DIS

116.95

-0.17(-0.15%)

1826

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

29.18

0.27(0.93%)

2194

13:43
Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 23.3. New orders and shipments increased moderately, while unfilled orders held steady. Delivery times continued to lengthen somewhat, and inventories moved higher. Labor market indicators pointed to an increase in employment levels and longer workweeks. The prices paid index remained elevated, and the prices received index was little changed. Looking ahead, firms remained fairly optimistic about the six-month outlook.

13:41
U.S import and export price index up more than expected m/m

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.5 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after advancing 0.2 percent in September. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the October increase. U.S. export prices advanced 0.4 percent in October after recording no change in September.

The price index for import fuels increased 3.3 percent in October, after advancing 0.7 percent in September; the rise was the largest monthly advance since a 6.1-percent increase in May. Higher prices for both petroleum and natural gas contributed to the advance in October.


13:37
U.S initial jobless claims in line with expectations last week

In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 213,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending November 3, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate

13:36
U.S retail sales rose more than expected in October

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $511.5 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent from the previous month, and 4.6 percent above October 2017.

Total sales for the August 2018 through October 2018 period were up 5.0 percent from the same period a year ago. The August 2018 to September 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent to down 0.1 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.9 percent from September 2018, and 4.3 percent above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 16.2 percent from October 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were also up 12.1 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year.

13:30
U.S.: Retail Sales YoY, October 4.6%
13:30
U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, November 12.9 (forecast 20)
13:30
U.S.: Retail sales excluding auto, October 0.7% (forecast 0.5%)
13:30
U.S.: Retail sales, October 0.8% (forecast 0.5%)
13:30
U.S.: NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index , November 23.30 (forecast 20)
13:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, November 216 (forecast 212)
13:30
U.S.: Import Price Index, October 0.5% (forecast 0.1%)
13:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, November 1676 (forecast 1630)
13:21
Sixth resignation from UK Government in five hours. Ranil Jayawardena resigns as PPS at the Ministry of Justice

  • Sixth resignation from Government in five hours (four ministers, two ministerial aides). Ranil Jayawardena resigns as PPS at the Ministry of Justice tells Theresa May: "This is not taking back control".

13:18
Company News: Walmart Inc (WMT) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimate

Walmart Inc (WMT) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $1.08 per share (versus $1.00 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.02.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $123.897 bln (+1.4% y/y), generally in-line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $124.421 bln.

WMT rose to $102.07 (+0.53%) in pre-market trading.

13:10
Company News: Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) reported Q1 FY 2019 earnings of $0.75 per share (versus $0.61 in Q1 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.72.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $13.072 bln (+7.7% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $12.861 bln.

CSCO rose to $46.10 (+3.99%) in pre-market trading.

11:45
Two senior members of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet quit Thursday over her Brexit deal, signaling turmoil within her government over her plan for the country to exit from the European Union

  • The resignations of Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey imperil Mrs. May's Brexit deal just hours after it was sealed. If other senior ministers decide to quit, Mrs. May could face an open challenge to her leadership

10:10
Euro area trade balance surplus rose more than expected in September

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in September 2018 was €184.8 billion, a decrease of 1.0% compared with September 2017 (€186.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €171.7 bn, a rise of 6.4% compared with September 2017 (€161.3 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €13.1 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in September 2018, compared with +€25.3 bn in September 2017. Intra-euro area trade rose to €161.1 bn in September 2018, up by 2.2% compared with September 2017.

In January to September 2018, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world rose to €1 686.0 bn (an increase of 3.6% compared with January-September 2017), while imports rose to €1 542.9 bn (an increase of 5.8% compared with January-September 2017). As a result the euro area recorded a surplus of €143.1 bn, compared with +€169.2 bn in January-September 2017. Intra-euro area trade rose to €1 449.8 bn in January-September 2018, up by 5.7% compared with January-September 2017.

10:00
Eurozone: Trade balance unadjusted, September 13.1
09:33
UK retail sales declined 0.5% in October

In the three months to October 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.4% when compared with the previous three months; a slowdown to growth when compared with the strong summer sales, which reached a high of 2.3% in the three months to July.

In October 2018, the quantity bought fell by 0.5% when compared with September 2018, with a strong decline of 3.0% in household goods stores following a particularly strong August and September.

When compared with the previous year, the quantity bought in October 2018 increased by 2.2%, with growth across all sectors except fuel, which fell by 1.8%.

The year-on-year average store price for fuel continued to increase in October 2018 to 11.4%; this is the 26th consecutive month to show an increase.

Online sales as a total of all retailing increased to 18.0% from the 17.7% reported in September 2018, with textile, clothing and footwear stores continuing a record proportion of online sales at 18.2%; this was despite a fall in total retail spending in this sector.


09:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), October -0.5% (forecast 0.2%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , October 2.2% (forecast 3%)
09:17
Today, I have resigned as Brexit Secretary. I cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU @DominicRaab
08:56
UK Brexit Minister Raab Has Resigned @LiveSquawk
08:41
FTSE +35.26 7069.05 +0.50% DAX +79.43 11491.96 +0.70% CAC +33.06 5101.91 +0.65%
08:00
EU Barnier: Agreement Ensures Northern Ireland Has Unfettered Access to Whole UK Market

  • Feasible to Construct Essentials of UK, EU Trade Agreement by End of Transition Period

07:59
EU Barnier: Agreement on Exit Terms Crucial for Orderly Brexit

  • Recommends 'Decisive' Progress in Brexit Talks

  • European Commission Recommendation Needed for Talks to Move to Final Phase

  • UK, EU Can Agree to Extend Transition Period Once for Limited Period

  • Now Found Solution to Ireland Border Issue

  • Backstop Solution for Ireland Only Kicks in If No Trade Deal at end of Transition

  • Single EU, UK Customs Area Would Mean No Tariffs for UK, EU Trade

  • Agreement Ensures UK, EU Firms Will Conpete on Level Playing Field

07:57
EU's Juncker Sent Recommendation in Letter to EU Council Accompanying Draft Agreement
07:55
UK's May: Cabinet Agrees Draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

  • Cabinet Had Long, Detailed Impassioned Debate on Draft Brexit Agreement

  • Firmly Believe Agreement Best That Could Be Negotiated

  • Cabinet Backs Political Declaration

  • Choice Was This Deal or Back to Square One

  • Will Address Parliament Thursday

  • Firmly Believe This Decision in National Interest

07:52
Futures: DAX +0,3% FTSE +0,3% CAC +0,4%
07:52
Options levels on thursday, November 15, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1449 (2580)

$1.1429 (844)

$1.1400 (116)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1335

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1292 (4958)

$1.1267 (2230)

$1.1238 (4122)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 125395 contracts (according to data from November, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6727);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3112 (618)

$1.3090 (273)

$1.3076 (127)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2987

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2939 (1285)

$1.2917 (1818)

$1.2893 (1053)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 57495 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (5218);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 45708 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4396);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.79 versus 0.79 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:50
Powell: Fiscal Sustainability Challenges Haven't Affected Fed's Job, But Need to be Addressed

  • Fed Has Legal Protections, Decisions Can't Be Reversed by the Administration

  • Lot of Factors Weighing on Homebuilding Right Now

  • Housing Less of a Cyclical Driver Today

  • Financial Stability Risks Look Moderate

  • Believe US Economy Can Grow, and Grow Faster

07:48
Powell: If Current Trade Process Boosts Global Protectionism, Would Hurt U.S. Economy

  • 'Don't See Much' Effect From Trade Policy Yet

  • Could See Slower Growth, Higher Inflation if More Products Face Tariffs

  • Strength of Global Economy is Very Important

  • This Year Seen 'Gradual Chipping Away' In Global Growth Picture

  • Credit Spreads Have Been Very Tight

  • Volcker Rule Will Remain In Force But More Efficient Once Revised

  • Important to Tailor Banking Regulation

07:44
Fed's Powell: Markets Will Have to Anticipate Rate Increases at Any FOMC Meeting

  • Every FOMC Meeting is a 'Live Meeting'

  • 'Very Happy' About State of the Economy

  • Inflation 'Right on Target'

  • Must Think Carefully About How Markets, Businesses React to Policy Changes

  • Good Reason To Think Economic Scenario Will Remain Positive

  • Gradual Rate Path Seeks To Balance Risks

  • Plan to Normalize Balance Sheet 'Going Very Well'

07:39
Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.0% in October

Trend estimates (monthly change)

  • Employment increased 25,400 to 12,665,800.

  • Unemployment decreased 7,600 to 680,300.

  • Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.1%.

  • Participation rate remained steady at 65.6%.

  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours (0.2%) to 1,761.8 million hours.

Seasonally adjusted estimates (monthly change)

  • Employment increased 32,800 to 12,671,500. Full-time employment increased 42,300 to 8,703,700 and part-time employment decreased 9,500 to 3,967,900.

  • Unemployment increased 4,600 to 672,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 5,200 to 445,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 9,800 to 226,700.

  • Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%.

  • Participation rate increased by 0.1 pts to 65.6%.

  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.1 million hours (0.3%) to 1,764.4 million hours.



00:59
Australia: Consumer Inflation Expectation, November 3.6%
00:30
Australia: Unemployment rate, October 5% (forecast 5.1%)
00:30
Australia: Changing the number of employed, October 32.8 (forecast 20)

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