CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-09-2018

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13.09.2018
23:01
Commodities. Daily history for September 13’ 2018:


Raw materials

Closing price

% change

Oil

$68.81

-2.22%

Gold

$1,206.40

-0.37%

23:00
Stocks. Daily history for September 13’ 2018:


Index

Change items

Closing price

% change

Nikkei

+216.71

22821.32

+0.96%

TOPIX

+18.70

1710.02

+1.11%

Hang Seng

+669.45

27014.49

+2.54%

CSI 300

+34.55

3236.57

+1.08%

KOSPI

+3.31

2286.23

+0.14%

FTSE 100

-31.79

7281.57

-0.43%

DAX

+23.25

12055.55

+0.19%

CAC 40

-4.01

5328.12

-0.08%

DJIA

+147.07

26145.99

+0.57%

S&P 500

+15.26

2904.18

+0.53%

NASDAQ

+59.48

8013.71

+0.75%

22:58
Currencies. Daily history for September 13’ 2018:


Pare

Closed

% change

EUR/USD

$1,1689

+0,53%

GBP/USD

$1,3103

+0,45%

USD/CHF

Chf0,96567

-0,45%

USD/JPY

Y111,91

+0,60%

EUR/JPY

Y130,83

+1,12%

GBP/JPY

Y146,661

+1,06%

AUD/USD

$0,7188

+0,23%

NZD/USD

$0,6572

+0,17%

USD/CAD

C$1,2979

-0,12%

22:30
New Zealand: Business NZ PMI, August 52.0
20:25
The major US stock indexes finished trading in positive territory

The main US stock indices grew moderately due to the rise in price of Apple shares, which led to a rebound in the technology sector, while trade fears weakened after China said it was open for fresh talks with the US.

Investors also estimated the US data. The Ministry of Labor reported that the consumer price index rose 0.2% in August after a similar increase in July. For the 12 months to August, the CPI rose by 2.7 percent, slowing from 2.9 percent in July. Without taking into account volatile food products and energy components, the index rose by 0.1 percent. The base CPI increased by 0.2 percent for three consecutive months. Over the 12 months to August, the base index rose 2.2 percent after rising 2.4 percent in July. It was expected that the overall index rose by 0.3 percent, and the base index by 0.2 percent.

Oil quotes declined significantly, departing from the 4-month highs, as investors focused on the risk that emerging market crises and trade disputes could affect demand, even when the bid is tightened.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (23 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 2.42%). Outsider were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, -1.42%).

All sectors of S & P recorded a rise. The healthcare sector grew most (+ 0.9%).

At closing:

Dow 26,145.99 +147.07 +0.57%

S & P 500 2,904.18 +15.26 +0.53%

Nasdaq 100 8,013.71 +59.48 +0.75%

19:01
DJIA +0.51% 26,132.77 +133.85 Nasdaq +0.75% 8,013.84 +59.61 S&P +0.54% 2,904.38 +15.46
18:00
U.S.: Federal budget , August -214 (forecast -169.8)
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -31.79 7281.57 -0.43% DAX +23.25 12055.55 +0.19% CAC 40 -4.01 5328.12 -0.08%
15:48
The EURUSD pair surged on Thursday: After somewhat hawkish ECB decision - and weakening US CPI - it was trading 0.5% stronger

The EURUSD pair surged on Thursday after a combination of a somewhat hawkish ECB decision along with a weakening of US CPI. The pair was seen trading 0.50% stronger during the US session, hovering slightly below the important 1.17 mark.

The ECB has left monetary policy unchanged today, but it cut the 2019 GDP outlook from 2.1% to 1.9%. Subsequently, Draghi also said the ECB projects, "significantly stronger core inflation." This was a hawkish sign and the EURUSD rose afterward.

Moreover, the US CPI slowed more than expected and the yearly print came out at 2.7% in August, down from 2.7% in July. Additionally, the core gauge also missed estimates and decelerated from 2.4% to 2.2%. The greenback was sold-off after this news.

More important US data will be released on Thursday, such as retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation.

15:19
The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China...@realDonaldTrump

"The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us. Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?"

14:10
U.K. is said to agree to EU request for key Brexit detail
13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.68%, S&P +0.41%
13:29
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.33%, NASDAQ futures +0.53%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday, as trade worries eased after news of potential U.S.-China trade negotiations.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,821.32

+216.71

+0.96%

Hang Seng

27,014.49

+669.45

+2.54%

Shanghai

2,686.58

+30.47

+1.15%

S&P/ASX

6,128.70

-47.20

-0.76%

FTSE

7,308.13

-5.23

-0.07%

CAC

5,355.20

+23.07

+0.43%

DAX

12,095.78

+63.48

+0.53%

Crude

$69.70


-0.95%

Gold

$1,214.70


+0.31%

13:04
Draghi: Core inflation indicators remain generally subdued. ECB lowers growth forecasts

  • The price pressure in Europe is strengthening

  • Uncertainty about the prospects of inflation decreases

  • Basic inflation will grow by the end of the year and will continue to grow afterwards

  • The level of incentives will still be significant after the completion of net purchases of assets

  • We see the movement of inflation to the target level

  • The harmonized consumer price index of the eurozone is + 1.7% in 2018 against the previous forecast of + 1.7%

  • GDP:

  • 2019 1.8% vs +1.9% prio

  • 2020 1.7% vs +1.7% prior

  • 2018 2.0% vs +2.1% prior

  • The recovery in lending growth in the private sector continues

  • Monetary analysis confirms the need for a significant degree of stimulus

12:58
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

42.2

0.18(0.43%)

500

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

62.25

-0.38(-0.61%)

8395

Apple Inc.

AAPL

223.57

2.50(1.13%)

421732

AT&T Inc

T

33.45

0.03(0.09%)

41380

AT&T Inc

T

33.45

0.03(0.09%)

41380

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

10.19

0.11(1.09%)

34100

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

145.6

1.32(0.91%)

18755

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

47.02

0.13(0.28%)

6648

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

71

0.49(0.69%)

19519

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.38

0.04(0.43%)

44888

Goldman Sachs

GS

229.62

1.47(0.64%)

15445

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

147.08

0.51(0.35%)

2608

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

139.53

0.17(0.12%)

1760

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

113.35

0.27(0.24%)

13820

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

70.2

0.34(0.49%)

1819

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

112.2

0.49(0.44%)

50298

Nike

NKE

83.08

0.08(0.10%)

3130

Pfizer Inc

PFE

42.37

-0.04(-0.09%)

80047

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

55.02

0.05(0.09%)

1415

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

289

-1.54(-0.53%)

53430

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

29.9

0.15(0.50%)

258849

Visa

V

146.95

0.38(0.26%)

1564

12:57
Draghi: ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments if needed
  • Protectionism and emerging markets risks gained prominence

  • Uncertainty around underlying inflation is diminished

  • New growth and inflation forecasts

  • Ample degree of monetary policy stimulus still needed (guidance unchanged)

12:55
The US dollar sharply weakened against the major currencies after the release of inflation data, which did not reach forecasts, and against the backdrop of ECB press conference

The EUR / USD has increased by almost 70 points, having updated September highs The pair is currently trading at $ 1.1675.

12:52
Draghi: Spillovers from Turkey and Argentina have not been substantial
12:52
Target price changes before the market open

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $260 from $220 at Needham

12:51
Upgrades before the market open

Intel (INTC) upgraded to Market Perform from Under Perform at Northland Capital

12:50
U.S CPI rose less than expected in August

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter and energy were the main contributors to the seasonally adjusted monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index increased 1.9 percent in August; a 3.0-percent increase in the gasoline index was the largest factor, but the other energy component indexes also rose.

12:48
Draghi: Significant stimulus still needed to support inflation
  • ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments if needed

  • 1.7% inflation is consistent with our mandate

  • Eurozone has grown above potential for some time

* via forexlive

12:34
Draghi: We intend to reinvest maturing bonds for as long as necessary
12:34
U.S initial jobless claims lower than expected last week

In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 203,000 to 205,000. The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 209,500 to 210,000.

12:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, July 0.5%
12:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, September 204 (forecast 210)
12:30
U.S.: CPI, Y/Y, August 2.7% (forecast 2.8%)
12:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, September 1696 (forecast 1710)
12:30
U.S.: CPI, m/m , August 0.2% (forecast 0.3%)
12:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, August 2.2% (forecast 2.4%)
12:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, m/m, August 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
12:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, July 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
11:47
ECB holds interest rates unchanged, as expected

"At today's meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term".

11:45
Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0% (forecast 0%)
11:15
Turkey Central Bank Raises One-Week Repo Rate to 24% From 17.75%

  • Data Indicates More Significant Rebalancing Trend in Economic Activity

  • Developments on Inflation Outlook Point to Significant Risks to Price Stability

  • Will Continue to Use All Monetary Policy Tools for Price Stability

  • Will Maintain Tight Monetary Stance Until Inflation Outlook Improves

11:12
BOE: Future Rate Increases Likely To Be Gradual And Limited

  • Downside Risks To Global Economic Growth Have Increased

  • "Ongoing Tightening" Of Policy Needed To Meet 2% Inflation Target

  • U.S. And China Trade Measures May Have More Negative Impact

  • Financial Markets Signaling Greater Uncertainty About Brexit

  • Recent Developments In U.K. Consistent With August Economic Forecasts

11:05
The Band of Englad holds the intrest rate unchanged at 0.75%

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 12 September 2018, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.

11:00
United Kingdom: Asset Purchase Facility, 435 (forecast 435)
11:00
United Kingdom: BoE Interest Rate Decision, 0.75% (forecast 0.75%)
08:34
Fed's Beige Book Shows Companies Sounding Alarm on Tariff Impacts -DJ
08:33
Fed Beige Book: Some Signs of Price Deceleration in U.S. Fed Districts
08:33
Fed Beige Book: Economy Expanded at Moderate Pace Through the End of August

  • Dallas District Reported 'Relatively Brisk Growth'

  • Three Districts Reported 'Somewhat Below Average Growth'

  • Employment Grew Modestly or Moderately Across Much of the U.S.

  • Dallas District Noted Robust Job Growth

  • Most Districts Reported Widespread Labor Shortages

  • Wage Growth Modest or Moderate Across U.S.

  • Prices Continued to Rise at Modest to Moderate Pace in Most Districts

08:21
IEA: OPEC Crude Output in August 'Far Outweighs' Iran Declines

  • Iran Crude Exports Fell by 280,000 B/D in August

  • Russian Oil Output Was Steady in August at 11.2 Mln B/D

  • Keeps Oil-Demand Growth Forecasts Unchanged for 2018, 2019

  • Iran Crude Output Fell by 150,000 B/D in August

08:06
FTSE -3,82 7309,54 -0,05% DAX 4,50 12036,80 + 0,04% CAC -2,50 5329,63 -0,05%
08:04
Britain will not pay Brexit divorce bill if there is no deal, Dominic Raab warns Brussels - Telegraph
07:49
Swiss Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in August

The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in August 2018 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 103.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Prices were higher in particular for pharmaceutical and chemical products, while scrap became cheaper. Compared with August 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.4%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

07:40
China Commerce Ministry: Urges US To Respect WTO Rules, Adopt Measures To Correct Abuses @LiveSquawk
07:37
Australian trend unemployment rate decreased from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in the month of August

The trend unemployment rate decreased from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in the month of August 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said that "since last August, the trend unemployment and underemployment rates have both fallen. As a result, underutilisation in Australia was at its lowest level since late 2013, at 13.6 per cent."

Trend employment increased by around 29,000 persons in August 2018 with full-time employment increasing by around 21,000 persons.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in August 2018, after the July figure was revised up.

"For those people aged 15 to 64 years, trend participation was the highest on record. Female participation in this age group, at 73.2 per cent, was also a record high," Mr Hockman said.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 300,000 persons or 2.5 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in August 2018 and by 1.8 per cent over the past year.

07:35
French CPI recovered to +0.5% over a month, after a slight downturn in July

In August 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) recovered to +0.5% over a month, after a slight downturn in July. This rebound came from a seasonal increase in manufactured product prices (+1.1% after −2.8%) after the summer sales in the metropolitan area. Moreover, food prices accelerated (+0.3% after +0.1%), in the wake of those in food excluding fresh products. Contrariwise, services prices sharply slowed down (+0.3% after +1.1%) due to the seasonal downturn in airfares and the drop in communication services prices.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices slowed down to +0.1% after +0.3% in July.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by 2.3%, as in the previous month. This slight drop in inflation resulted from a year-on-year slowdown in energy prices, partly offset by an acceleration in food prices. Services prices rose at the same pace as in the previous month and those of manufactured product fell by 0.1%, as in July.

07:21
Consumer prices in Germany were 2.0% higher in August 2018 than in August 2017

The inflation rate - measured by the consumer price index - thus reached the two percent mark for the fourth consecutive month. Compared with July 2018, the consumer price index was up 0.1% in August 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 30 August 2018.

As in the preceding months, the increase of energy product prices had a considerable effect on the inflation rate. Energy prices were 6.9% higher in August 2018 than in August 2017 (July 2018: +6.6%). The prices of heating oil (+29.7%) and motor fuels (+12.4%), in particular, were higher than a year earlier. While the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply, relatively moderate price developments were observed for other energy products (for example, charges for central and district heating: +2.0%; electricity: +1.0%; gas: -1.5%). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.5% in August 2018.


7. The inflation rate - measured by the consumer price index - thus reached the two percent mark for the fourth consecutive month. Compared with July 2018, the consumer price index was up 0.1% in August 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 30 August 2018.

As in the preceding months, the increase of energy product prices had a considerable effect on the inflation rate. Energy prices were 6.9% higher in August 2018 than in August 2017 (July 2018: +6.6%). The prices of heating oil (+29.7%) and motor fuels (+12.4%), in particular, were higher than a year earlier. While the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply, relatively moderate price developments were observed for other energy products (for example, charges for central and district heating: +2.0%; electricity: +1.0%; gas: -1.5%). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.5% in August 2018.

07:19
'No-deal' Brexit means no £39bn divorce bill, Dominic Raab warns EU @news.sky
07:15
Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, y/y, August 3.4% (forecast 3.4%)
07:01
France: CPI, y/y, August 2.3% (forecast 2.3%)
06:45
France: CPI, m/m, August 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)
06:45
Options levels on thursday, September 13, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1792 (3560)

$1.1757 (889)

$1.1727 (448)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1627

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1595 (3617)

$1.1560 (5565)

$1.1522 (2804)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 89462 contracts (according to data from September, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5565);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3162 (716)

$1.3142 (657)

$1.3129 (350)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3029

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2950 (863)

$1.2919 (1457)

$1.2885 (1685)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 15 is 26285 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3073);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 28466 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2498);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 12.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:00
Germany: CPI, m/m, August 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
06:00
Germany: CPI, y/y , August 2% (forecast 2%)
01:30
Australia: Unemployment rate, August 5.3% (forecast 5.3%)
01:30
Australia: Changing the number of employed, August 44 (forecast 15)
01:00
Australia: Consumer Inflation Expectation, September 4%

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