CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-02-2018

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 58.95 -0.57%

Gold 1,332.00 +0.42%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -137.94 21244.68 -0.65%

TOPIX -15.19 1716.78 -0.88%

Hang Seng +379.90 29839.53 +1.29%

CSI 300 +45.53 3935.63 +1.17%

Euro Stoxx 50 -27.32 3340.93 -0.81%

FTSE 100 -9.05 7168.01 -0.13%

DAX -86.27 12196.50 -0.70%

CAC 40 -30.82 5109.24 -0.60%

DJIA +39.18 24640.45 +0.16%

S&P 500 +6.94 2662.94 +0.26%

NASDAQ +31.55 7013.51 +0.45%

S&P/TSX -25.41 15216.47 -0.17%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2351 +0,49%

GBP/USD $1,3891 +0,39%

USD/CHF Chf0,93495 -0,45%

USD/JPY Y107,81 -0,78%

EUR/JPY Y133,16 -0,29%

GBP/JPY Y149,76 -0,39%

AUD/USD $0,7858 -0,04%

NZD/USD $0,7274 +0,16%

USD/CAD C$1,25919 +0,10%

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) January 0.6% -0.7%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) January 1.7% 1.6%

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.8% 0.8%

07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 2.8% 3%

08:00 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

08:50 Switzerland Gov Board Member Fritz Zurbrugg Speaks

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) December 3.2% 4.2%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) December 1% 0.2%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Revised) Quarter IV 0.7% 0.6%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Revised) Quarter IV 2.8% 2.7%

11:20 Switzerland Gov Board Member Fritz Zurbrugg Speaks

13:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY January 5.4%

13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto January 0.4% 0.4%

13:30 U.S. Retail sales January 0.4% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m January 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m January 0.2% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y January 2.1% 1.9%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y January 1.8% 1.7%

15:00 U.S. Business inventories December 0.4% 0.3%

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February 1.895 2.6

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders December 5.7% -2.3%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y December 4.1% 2.2%

Major US stock indices rose slightly on Tuesday, recording the third sessional increase in a row, helped by the growth of shares in the services sector.

Meanwhile, investors are cautious and look forward to data on the consumer price index and retail sales, which will come out on Wednesday, and may affect the yield of bonds and cause strong movements in the stock market.

A slight influence on the course of today's trading was provided by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which showed that the small business optimism index rose two points to 106.9 in January. The closely monitored sentiment index among small business owners soared up in January after the December fall. The result was stronger than the forecast at 105.5 points according to a survey of economists from Econoday.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (17 out of 30). Leader of growth were shares of Walmart Inc. (WMT, + 1.54%). Outsider shares were DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP, -1.38%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The services sector grew most (+ 0.7%). The decline was shown only by the conglomerate sector (-0.1%).

At closing:

Dow + 0.16% 24.640.45 +39.18

Nasdaq + 0.45% 7.013.51 +31.55

S & P + 0.26% 2.662.94 + 6.94

• At ceremonial swearing-in as Federal Reserve chair, pledges to preserve "essential gains" in financial regulation made since crisis

• Upside risks to forecast "more salient" than they have been in quite some time

• Recovery in housing and real estate prices is "sustainable" and not in "bubble territory"

U.S. stock-index futures pointed to decline at the open for Wall Street on Tuesday, halting two days of gains that had somewhat cooled investors' concerns about a burgeoning market correction.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,244.68 -137.94 -0.65%

Hang Seng 29,839.53 +379.90 +1.29%

Shanghai 3,185.60 +31.47 +1.00%

S&P/ASX 5,855.90 +35.20 +0.60%

FTSE 7,196.29 +19.23 +0.27%

CAC 5,135.71 -4.35 -0.08%

DAX 12,265.28 -17.49 -0.14%

Crude $58.67 (-1.05%)

Gold $1,328.50 (+0.16%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

3M (MMM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette

• OECD oil inventories at end-dec 52 mln barrels above five-year average, vs 264 mln barrels a year earlier

• Oil demand grew by 1.6 mln bpd in 2017

• Non-OPEC oil supply, led by United States, likely to grow more than demand in 2018

• Raises forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.4 mln bpd in 2018 from 1.3 mln bpd

• Economy to continue growing above trend for now, with inflation gradually rising to Fed's two pct goal

• Supports rate rises at pace similar to last year, but will watch impact of tax and other fiscal policy changes

• U.S. will "work through" recent market turbulence without causing larger problems

• Global oil inventories are shrinking despite rising production in United States

• Russian oil and gas companies planning to explore reserves in syria and restore existing deposits

• Says United States acting unilaterally, dangerously in Syria, risking its territorial integrity

The headline rate of inflation for goods leaving the factory gate (output prices) rose 2.8% on the year to January 2018, down from 3.3% in December 2017.

Prices for materials and fuels (input prices) rose 4.7% on the year to January 2018, down from 5.4% in December 2017.

All industries provided upward contributions to output annual inflation; the largest contribution was made by food products.

Prices of imported materials and fuels increased 3.5% on the year to January 2018, slowing from 5.2% in December 2017 and the lowest the rate has been since June 2016.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.7% in January 2018, unchanged from December 2017.

The largest downward contribution to change in the rate came from prices for motor fuels, which rose by less than they did a year ago.

The main upward effect came from prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services, in particular, admissions to attractions such as zoos and gardens, for which prices fell by less than they did a year ago.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 3.0% in January 2018, unchanged from December 2017.

The overall index of producer and import prices increased by 0.3% in January 2018 compared to the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (base December 2015 = 100). The increase is mainly due to higher prices for petroleum products, electricity and gas, and metals and metal products. Compared with January 2017, the price level of the total supply of domestic and imported products increased by 1.8%. This is evident from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The increase in the producer price index compared with the previous month was mainly due to higher prices for scrap, electricity and petroleum products.

In Q4 2017, private payroll employment continued to increase following the same path than in the previous quarters : +0.3%, that is +53,300 jobs after +49,600 in Q3 2017. Year on year, private payroll employment increased by +1.3% (that is +253,500 jobs). Excluding temporary employment, it increased over the quarter by +0.2% (that is +45,200 jobs) and by +1.1% over the year (+208,000 jobs). Private payroll employment continued to increase in agriculture (+0.2%, +500 jobs) and accelerated in construction (+0.4%, +4,900 jobs, after +0.1%). It stabilised in industry (0.0%, that is −400 jobs).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2422 (4387)

$1.2383 (1116)

$1.2355 (913)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2315

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2265 (970)

$1.2233 (5167)

$1.2186 (5022)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 125316 contracts (according to data from February, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (5167);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4014 (3326)

$1.3964 (1316)

$1.3912 (639)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3854

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3806 (608)

$1.3768 (1777)

$1.3729 (2090)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 43537 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3326);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 42914 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2203);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• See U.S. jobless rate averaging 3.9 pct in 2018 (previous 4.4 pct); 3.7 pct in 2019 (previous 4.6 pct); 3.8 pct in 2020 (preivous 4.7 pct)

• CPI increasing 2.1 pct in 2018 (previous 2.3 pct); 2.0 pct in 2019 (previous 2.3 pct); 2.2 pct in 2020 (previous 2.3 pct), year-over-year

• Real GDP growth at 3.0 pct in 2018 (previous 2.4 pct); 3.2 pct in 2019 (previous 2.7 pct); 3.1 pct in 2020 (previous 2.9 pct), year-over-year

• Says I think we can say at this stage that recent moves in stock markets have been a correction

• We do face a great deal of uncertainty around brexit negotiations and impact on confidence

• Our decisions on rates will depend on how economy evolves

• Progress, however, expected to be gradual and to lag other advanced economies

• Weak income growth especially risky given high debt levels

• Recent enterprise agreements to weigh on wage growth for a while

• No immediate pick up in wage growth expected, to be gradual thereafter

• Retail competition to work against a rise in inflation

• Economic fundamentals, corporate profits that serve as basis for stock moves are solid

• BoJ must maintain powerful monetary easing for economy

• Will continue to closely watch domestic, overseas stock moves as they could affect Japan's economy, markets