CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-05-2019

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08.05.2019
22:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, May 9, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y April 0.4% 0.6%
01:30 China CPI y/y April 2.3% 2.5%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 40.5 40.3
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1671 1670
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM March 0% 0%
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY March 0.1%  
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 230 220
12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April 2.2% 2.3%
12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April 0.6% 0.2%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April 2.4% 2.5%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions March -2.9 -2.45
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln March -49.4 -50.2
12:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories March 0.2% 0%
14:45 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
23:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY March -0.8%  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y March 1.7% 1.7%
20:11
Major US stock indexes finished trading mainly in the red

Major US stock indices predominantly declined as investors digested a mixed stream of reports on the US-China trade dispute ahead of a critical round of negotiations between the two countries.

US President Trump helped ease selling pressure on the market by writing Twitter this morning that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is going to Washington to “make a deal.” However, his next statement “Let's See” made market participants temper expectations and contributed to maintaining market uncertainty.

Later, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders confirmed Trump's words that China intends to make a deal this week. She told reporters that the White House received "signs" that the Chinese delegation arriving in Washington wanted to conclude a trade agreement.

Earlier it was reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He should visit the United States on Thursday and Friday for trade talks. At the same time, Beijing said it would take the "necessary" countermeasures if Washington raises the tariffs on imports of Chinese goods by $ 200 billion from 10% to 25% on Friday.

Investors are concerned that the United States and China will not be able to resolve the trade agreement dispute before new tariffs are introduced on Friday that threaten Trump. According to Reuters, Chinese officials have abandoned key trade deal agreements previously reached, undermining hopes that the Chinese delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, will be able to save the deal this week.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (19 out of 30). The growth leader was The Walt Disney Company (DIS, + 1.42%). Intel Corporation (INTC; -1.84%) turned out to be an outsider.

Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded an increase. The exception is the utilities sector (-0.9%). The largest growth was shown by the conglomerate sector (+ 0.6%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 25,967.60 +2.51 + 0.01%

S & P 500 2,879.43 -4.62 -0.16%

Nasdaq 100 7,943.32 --20.44 -0.26%

19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, May 9, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y April 0.4% 0.6%
01:30 China CPI y/y April 2.3% 2.5%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 40.5 40.3
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1671 1670
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM March 0% 0%
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY March 0.1%  
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 230 220
12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April 2.2% 2.3%
12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April 0.6% 0.2%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April 2.4% 2.5%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions March -2.9 -2.45
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln March -49.4 -50.2
12:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories March 0.2% 0%
14:45 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
23:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY March -0.8%  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y March 1.7% 1.7%
19:00
DJIA +0.40% 26,067.67 +102.58 Nasdaq +0.17% 7,977.27 +13.51 S&P +0.26% 2,891.62 +7.57
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +10.53 7271.00 +0.15% DAX +87.19 12179.93 +0.72% CAC 40 +21.84 5417.59 +0.40%
14:34
EIA’s report reveals unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude inventories fell by 3.963 million barrels in the week ended May 3. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.900 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks declined by 0.596 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.000 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 0.159 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.500 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. decreased by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.200 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, down by 721,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, May -3.963 (forecast 1.215)
13:54
Richmond Fed President Barkin sees economy on a strong course

  • Says it is hard to have a recession with unemployment and rates this low
  • Feels good about financial stability


13:35
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.22%, Nasdaq -0.37% S&P -0.32%
13:29
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.40%, NASDAQ futures -0.67%

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday, as investors continued closely monitoring developments around U.S.-China trade talks.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,602.59

-321.13

-1.46%

Hang Seng

29,003.20

-359.82

-1.23%

Shanghai

2,893.76

-32.63

-1.12%

S&P/ASX

6,269.10

-26.60

-0.42%

FTSE

7,242.66

-17.81

-0.25%

CAC

5,397.75

+2.00

+0.04%

DAX

12,146.59

+53.85

+0.45%

Crude oil

61.50


+0.16%

Gold

1,288.40


+0.22%

12:57
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

178.77

-0.35(-0.20%)

3599

ALCOA INC.

AA

25.1

-0.08(-0.32%)

3949

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

52.71

-0.23(-0.43%)

2014

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,917.35

-3.65(-0.19%)

60438

American Express Co

AXP

118

-0.22(-0.19%)

1485

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

49.8

-0.50(-0.99%)

3614

Apple Inc.

AAPL

202.09

-0.77(-0.38%)

440454

AT&T Inc

T

30.4

-0.13(-0.43%)

25139

Boeing Co

BA

357.5

0.27(0.08%)

48324

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

133.2

-0.47(-0.35%)

13628

Chevron Corp

CVX

118.19

-0.08(-0.07%)

1895

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

53.33

-0.12(-0.22%)

19067

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

67.75

-0.41(-0.60%)

36085

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

157.99

0.23(0.15%)

909

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

76.79

0.07(0.09%)

2264

Facebook, Inc.

FB

189.25

-0.52(-0.27%)

87843

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

179.93

-0.73(-0.40%)

3788

Ford Motor Co.

F

10.36

-0.02(-0.19%)

89544

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.45

0.01(0.09%)

41998

General Electric Co

GE

10.12

0.01(0.10%)

130790

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

38.5

-0.03(-0.08%)

7285

Goldman Sachs

GS

201.7

-0.93(-0.46%)

1994

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,172.00

-2.10(-0.18%)

3607

Home Depot Inc

HD

194.72

-0.05(-0.03%)

2356

Intel Corp

INTC

50.35

-0.13(-0.26%)

35934

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

137.97

0.33(0.24%)

6710

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

139.95

-0.02(-0.01%)

3227

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

112.75

-0.46(-0.41%)

31117

McDonald's Corp

MCD

198

-0.04(-0.02%)

2021

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

77.99

0.09(0.12%)

1123

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

125.25

-0.27(-0.22%)

95042

Nike

NKE

82.4

-0.14(-0.17%)

4003

Pfizer Inc

PFE

40.85

0.02(0.05%)

3665

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

104.78

0.08(0.08%)

3174

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

77.5

-0.10(-0.13%)

9020

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

246.6

-0.46(-0.19%)

62254

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

48.1

0.10(0.21%)

849

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

141.83

0.12(0.08%)

208

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

38.54

-0.08(-0.21%)

74426

United Technologies Corp

UTX

135.56

0.12(0.09%)

727

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

238

-0.05(-0.02%)

1501

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

56.6

-0.03(-0.05%)

1987

Visa

V

159.36

-0.85(-0.53%)

11483

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

100.3

-1.00(-0.99%)

33302

Walt Disney Co

DIS

134.06

0.62(0.46%)

54149

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

36.33

0.01(0.03%)

6195

12:49
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: Fed should consider targeting long-term rates in a future downturn

  • Want to "hear more" about the idea of whether, if short-term rates again reach zero, Fed bond purchases could be used to set targeted levels for longer-term rates
  • Fed may find best option is to enhance existing tools
  • No comments on the outlook or monetary policy

12:32
Canada’s housing starts up 22.6 percent m-o-m in April

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported on Wednesday the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was at 235,460 units in April, up 22.6 percent from a downwardly revised 191,981 units in February (originally 192,527units).

Economists had forecast an annual pace of 196,400 for April.

According to the report, urban starts surged by 24.0 percent m-o-m last month to 220,387 units, as multiple urban starts climbed by 29.6 percent m-o-m to 175,732 units, while single-detached urban starts rose by 6.0 percent m-o-m, to 44,655 units. At the same time, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15,073 units, up 5.5 percent m-o-m.

12:17
Canada: Housing Starts, April 235.5 (forecast 196.4)
12:13
Company News: Barrick (GOLD) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimate

Barrick (GOLD) reported Q1 FY 2019 earnings of $0.11 per share (versus $0.15 in Q1 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $0.09.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $2.093 bln (+16.9% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.148 bln.

GOLD rose to $12.88 (+1.26%) in pre-market trading.

12:03
ECB President Draghi: ECB will not accept defeat on inflation target

  • Changing inflation target could damage credibility
  • Pressure on nominal wages is increasing

11:44
Italy Deputy PM Di Maio: Possible to discuss breaking EU 3 percent budget deficit limit

  • Rules out reshuffle of government following EU elections

11:26
UK PM May close to setting out timetable for departure - The Sun's political editor

According to Tom Newton Dunn, the political editor of The Sun newspaper, UK's Prime Minister Theresa May is now close to setting out a timetable for her departure from office. 

"I understand Theresa May is now close to setting out a timetable for her departure from No10, with or without Brexit taking place," he tweeted, adding “Friends of Graham Brady say he had "a very productive conversation" with her in No10 yesterday, and is now awaiting firm thoughts from her - which may, or may not, come in time for the 1922 Committee meeting at 5pm today.”

11:15
Labour Brexit talks with government "near collapse", - ITV's political editor

ITV's political editor Robert Peston writes that Labour's negotiations on a Brexit pact with the Government may well be pronounced dead today - partly because the party is launching its EU elections manifesto tomorrow and would presumably need to say something about a possible pact other than "don't know".

  • To be clear, there are more talks between the two sides this evening. But those involved tell me they have no expectation a breakthrough will be seized from the jaws of futility.
  • Simultaneously Labour's leadership is consulting "all the elements" in and connected to the party, so there's no great backlash from MPs or union leaders as and when the hopes of a Brexit compromise are officially abandoned - which could happen tonight.
  • One outstanding question is whether the party should now help the PM at least create the impression a process still exists to deliver Brexit, by providing assurances it won't be wilfully destructive, as and when she introduces the Withdrawal and Implementation Bill to the Commons.

11:07
U.S. mortgage applications raise last week

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. rose 2.7 percent in the week ended May 3, following a 4.3 percent decrease in the previous week.

According to the report, the refinance applications increased 0.8 percent and applications to purchase a home surged 4.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 4.41 percent from 4.42 percent.

“Even with slower price appreciation in higher-priced markets, home prices are still rising enough to push average loan sizes higher,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “With purchase activity increasing and mortgage rate movements mostly unchanged, the refinance share of applications were at their lowest level since last November.”

10:37
Increases in German industrial productin fairly broadly-based - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities say that the German IP rose 0.5% mom in March, confirming their expectations of a gain against the consensus of a 0.5% mom drop. 

  • March's gain marks the third increase for IP in the past four months, though it puts 19Q1 IP growth at just 0.5%, leaving a ways to go before a full recovery to its 2018H1 levels. Increases in March IP were fairly broadly-based, with mining/quarrying the only sector to see a decline.

10:16
Escalating trade war will make China's trade situation worse - ING

Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes that China's exports contracted 2.7% yoy in April while its imports enjoyed a rise of 4.0% yoy. According to her, these numbers reflect the negative outlook for smart devices and automobile sales globally, and at the same show that China is importing more crude oil for domestic use.  Pang also adds that she is not particularly optimistic on China's export and import data in coming months.

  • First, the escalation of the trade war means it is likely there will be more tariffs imposed on China's exports, and China's retaliation means more expensive imported goods from the US. So both China's exports and imports will be hit. 
  • Second, the structural change in smart devices and automobiles will continue. Consumers have been delaying purchases of new smart devices because of a lack of new technology and as they await the rollout of 5G. For automobiles, ride-hailing apps globally, especially in China, have reduced demand for cars. Unless there are big improvements in the convenience of driving and charging a new energy car or even mass production of driverless cars, we believe this structural change in private cars will continue.
  • Third, if the trade dispute escalates further, we expect the US to push even harder on its Western allies not to use China-made 5G products and parts, which will dampen China's future exports.

09:59
BOE's Ramsden: some Brexit financial stability risks remain

The Bank of England has largely guarded against most of the risks to financial stability that could arise from a no-deal Brexit, but there are still some hazards, according to the institution’s Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

“In our view most risks to financial stability that could arise have been mitigated -- although, particularly in the absence of further actions by EU authorities, some potential risks to financial stability, primarily to EU households and businesses, remain,” Ramsden said.

“It’s important to note that financial stability is not the same as market stability. A disruptive Brexit could still be expected to bring significant market volatility,” he added.

09:39
China said to have backtracked on nearly all aspects of US trade deal last week - report

The latest report by Reuters, citing sources with knowledge of the talks, says that China had deleted its commitments to resolve core complaints by the US last Friday i.e. theft of intellectual property and trade secrets, forced technology transfers, competition policy, access to financial services, and currency manipulation.

Adding that the document handed over by the Chinese camp was riddled with reversals on said key commitments and undermined core US demands.

The report adds that the stripping of binding legal language in the agreement was greeted with a cold response from Lighthizer as he views changes to Chinese laws as the highest priority for trade talks and is afraid of 'empty reform promises' from China.

09:20
China: More signs of stability in trade - TDS

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Chinese exports were weaker than expected in April (-2.7% y/y, market 3.0%) while imports were stronger (4.0% y/y, market -2.1%), yielding a much smaller trade surplus than expected ($13.84bn, market $34.56bn).

“The rebound in imports after 4 month of decline (in y/y terms) will likely be seen as further evidence of China’s economic stability. Weaker exports largely reflected a drop in demand from the US. China’s trade surplus with the US was $21.0bn, with exports dropping by -13.1% y/y and imports falling -25.7% y/y. The trade surplus with the US remained elevated at $327.5bn (12m sum), close to record highs, a fact that will likely not go unnoticed in trade talks tomorrow and Friday. Imports from Asia picked up over the month, but exports to every country in Asia dropped (m/m). Indeed, the data appears to add to evidence that China’s growth stability is not being echoed by demand from elsewhere in the region, with higher exports only to Malaysia, Philippines and Taiwan (y/y).”

08:59
EUR/USD struggling to overcome resistance - Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is struggling to overcome resistance and remains capped by 55 day ma at 1.1267.

“For now, we are unable to rule out a retest of the 1.1110 support, but, if seen, we look for this to hold. Be advised that the pattern being traced out is a potential large reversal pattern, we have divergence of the weekly RSI and a 13 count on the weekly chart as well and there is a risk of reversal. Initial resistance is the 100 day ma at 1.1324 and the resistance line at 1.1348 ahead of the 200 day ma at 1.1406. Only above the 200 day ma would this imply reversal. Support at 1.1110 is regarded as the break down point to 2018-2019 support line (connects the lows) at 1.1052, the 1.0963 TD support and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

08:40
US: Raising tariffs on Chinese goods to benefit the rest of the world – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered analysts note that the US has threatened to raise the tariff rate on $200bn of China’s imports to 25% from 10% on 10 May.

“Two rounds of US tariffs have been implemented so far. ‘Round one’ entailed 25% tariffs on $50bn of goods, split into two tranches of $34bn and $16bn; these were implemented on 6 July and 23 August 2018, respectively. Tariffs were originally due to be raised to 25% on 1 March 2019 (the end of the trade truce), but the US postponed this indefinitely in late February, citing progress on trade talks with China. Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam have emerged as the top five ‘winners’ from this round of tariffs. Raising tariff rates further could increase the benefits to these economies; meanwhile, a sudden trade deal rolling back tariffs could see the winners become losers, and vice versa.”

08:20
UK businesses in “critical distress”, bankruptcies surge - UK Insolvency Service

The number of companies in the UK going into administration — which is when a licensed insolvency “administrator” is appointed to manage a company’s affairs, business, and property for the benefit of the creditors — jumped by 21.8% in Q1 2019 to 451, the highest quarterly level in five years (although the number of administrations is still much lower than during and after the Financial Crisis).

In Q1, the number of small businesses going into liquidation rose 5.1% compared to the same period a year ago, to 4,187. Liquidations also rose  6.3% from the fourth quarter of 2018, according to The UK Insolvency Service.

The number of companies classed as being in “critical distress,” often a precursor to insolvency, surged 17% in the first quarter from a year earlier, to 484,000 mostly small and medium-sized businesses, according to data compiled by financial adviser Begbies Traynor Group Plc. These businesses in “critical distress” now account for about 14% of all active businesses in the UK.

08:00
Brent seen lower at $65.5/bbl in Q3 2019 – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analysts now believes that the bounce in oil prices could be limited and the prices are likely to decline by end-2019.

“Beyond the next couple months, however, we continue to believe that all these supply and demand crosscurrents will dissipate to bring a balanced global oil market, once new Permian transport capacity is online and core-OPEC ramps up. … We also discuss in this report, we expect Russia's crude issues to be transient and soon allow for higher production. We, therefore, remain comfortable with our view that oil prices will sequentially decline later this year with our 3Q19 Brent forecast of $65.5/bbl.”

07:45
UK house prices rose by 1.1% in April - Halifax

According to the report from Halifax Bank of Scotland, on a monthly basis UK house prices rose by 1.1%, versus a fall of 1.3% March. Economists had expected a 0.1% increase

House prices in the three months to April were 5.0% higher than in the same three months a year earlier

In the latest quarter (February to April) house prices were 4.2% higher than in the preceding three months (November to January).The average house price is now £236,619

In April 2009 average house prices were £154,663 - the low point following the 2008 financial crash. Since then we have seen an increase of £81,956, which reflects a 4.3% average annual increase.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said:

“The average UK house price now stands at £236,619 following a 1.1% monthly rise in April, as demand and supply of housing remained subdued for another month. The index has seen a weaker pace of growth over the last three years, which is consistent with the easing of transactions volumes and housing market activity reflected in RICS, Bank of England and HMRC figures”

07:32
United Kingdom: Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y, April 5.0% (forecast 4.5%)
07:31
United Kingdom: Halifax house price index, April 1.1% (forecast 0.1%)
07:20
Germany, wealthy regions are biggest winners of EU single market - report

The EU's industrial heartlands, its urban regions and Germany are the biggest beneficiaries of the bloc's single market, according to a study that highlights the economic and social inequalities plaguing the bloc. The single market seeks to guarantee free movement of goods, capital, services and labour across the 28-nation EU.

A report by the Bertelsmann Foundation found that Germany, Europe's largest economy, benefited most in absolute terms from the single market, earning an extra 86 billion euros a year because of it. It found that each German was on average 1,046 euros richer as a result of single market membership, while on average EU citizens were only 840 euros richer.

Wealthy, advanced economies near the EU's economic core such as Austria and the Netherlands are also far richer as a result of being members, the report showed, while poorer southern and eastern European countries benefit far less.

Rural regions also profit less from single market membership, the report showed, while highly developed regions such as the south of England were big winners.

07:01
China’s crude oil imports hit monthly record in April - China Customs

The latest trade balance report from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed that China imported record high oil. Surge in the Chinese oil imports is because the state-run refiners built up stocks of Iranian crude oil anticipating a sanctions clampdown.

Imports last month were 43.73 million tonnes, equal to 10.64 million barrels per day (bpd). That compared with 9.26 million bpd in March and was up 11 percent from the April 2018 level.

China’s Iran crude oil imports rose to 24 million barrels or about 800,000 bpd in April, the highest since August, as buyers rushed in shipments before the U.S. sanctions waiver deadline of early May.

06:46
Global gold demand grew in Q1 2019 on increased central bank buying - WGC

Key highlights of the latest World Gold Council’s (WGC) Gold Demand Trends report for the first quarter of 2019:

  • Global gold demand grew to 1,053.3 tonnes in the first quarter of 2019. This constitutes a 7% rise year-on-year, largely driven by continued growth in central bank buying, as well as growth in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

  • Central banks bought 145.5 tonnes of gold – up 68% year-on-year and representing the strongest start to a year since 2013. The increased demand was largely due to diversification and a desire for safe, liquid assets.

  • ETFs and similar products added 40.3 tonnes in Q1, up 49% year-on-year. Bar and coin investment fell 1% to 257.8 tonnes.

  • Gold demand for jewellery grew 1% y/y to 530.3 tonnes and boosted by India. In India, jewelry demand grew 5% to 125.4 tonnes – the highest growth since the 1st of 2014.

06:30
Any US-China deal will not be the ‘right one’ - ex-Obama advisor Larry Summers

If there is ultimately a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, it probably won’t be the one that is needed, Larry Summers, former economic advisor to President Barack Obama, told.

“I don’t think the deal is likely to be the right one,” he said.

“There’s a lot of focus on the cosmetics of the bilateral deficit,” added Summers.

“Instead of trying to mobilize the world together to work to address China’s many problems, we’re launching trade attacks on virtually every part of the world and therefore in a sense strengthening China’s position,” Summers said.

Trade tensions are once again escalating between the two nations and fears of an all-out trade war are hitting the stock market.

“We see this each time the president moves in ways that seem designed to disrupt the negotiations,” Summers said of the market’s moves.

What’s more, while the tariffs aren’t likely to cause a “sudden slowdown,” they are “gradually corrosive” to the economy, he said.

In the end, he expects the economy to start to slow down from here.

06:15
Germany industrial production unexpectedly rose in March

In March 2019, production in industry was up by 0.5% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Economists had expected a 0.5% decrease. The revised figure shows an increase of 0.4% (provisional value: +0.7%) from February 2019.

In March 2019, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.4%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods increased by 0.4% and the production of consumer goods by 1.1%. The production of capital goods remained at the level of the previous month. Outside industry, energy production was up by 0.3% in March 2019 and the production in construction increased by 1.0%.

06:00
Germany: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM), March 0.5% (forecast -0.5%)
05:45
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), April 2.4% (forecast 2.3%)
05:30
Options levels on wednesday, May 8, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1338 (4243)

$1.1307 (2857)

$1.1294 (83)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1203

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1163 (3004)

$1.1137 (8029)

$1.1106 (5358)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 115468 contracts (according to data from May, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8084);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3236 (2524)

$1.3208 (1937)

$1.3165 (879)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3069

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3005 (427)

$1.2983 (1888)

$1.2926 (927)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 7 is 37343 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (3269);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 36739 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (3677);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

03:16
China: Trade Balance, bln, April 13.84 (forecast 35)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 69.43 -2.2
WTI 61.42 -1.67
Silver 14.88 0.07
Gold 1284.196 0.29
Palladium 1327.73 -0.88
02:02
New Zealand: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, 1.50% (forecast 1.50%)
00:31
Japan: Nikkei Services PMI, April 51.8
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
Hang Seng 153.2 29363.02 0.52
KOSPI -19.33 2176.99 -0.88
ASX 200 12 6295.7 0.19
FTSE 100 -120.17 7260.47 -1.63
DAX -194.14 12092.74 -1.58
Dow Jones -473.39 25965.09 -1.79
S&P 500 -48.42 2884.05 -1.65
NASDAQ Composite -159.53 7963.76 -1.96
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.70114 0.33
EURJPY 123.407 -0.4
EURUSD 1.1193 -0.01
GBPJPY 144.118 -0.55
GBPUSD 1.30712 -0.16
NZDUSD 0.66002 -0.02
USDCAD 1.34693 0.11
USDCHF 1.01881 0.12
USDJPY 110.25 -0.39

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