CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-01-2018

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +208.20 23714.53 +0.89%

TOPIX +16.52 1880.34 +0.89%

Hang Seng +84.89 30899.53 +0.28%

CSI 300 +21.41 4160.16 +0.52%

Euro Stoxx 50 +8.82 3616.45 +0.24%

FTSE 100 -27.71 7696.51 -0.36%

DAX +48.14 13367.78 +0.36%

CAC 40 +16.67 5487.42 +0.30%

DJIA -12.87 25283.00 -0.05%

S&P 500 +4.56 2747.71 +0.17%

NASDAQ +20.83 7157.39 +0.29%

S&P/TSX -31.79 16317.65 -0.19%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1967 -0,62%

GBP/USD $1,3566 +0,00%

USD/CHF Chf0,97722 +0,22%

USD/JPY Y113,08 -0,02%

EUR/JPY Y135,33 -0,64%

GBP/JPY Y153,41 -0,02%

AUD/USD $0,7840 -0,42%

NZD/USD $0,7174 -0,06%

USD/CAD C$1,24188 +0,06%

00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY November 0.6%

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) December 1.5%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November 0.9% -0.9%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence December 44.9 45.1

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) December 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Germany Current Account November 18.1

07:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln November 18.9

07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) November -1.4% 1.9%

07:45 France Trade Balance, bln November -5.0 -4.8

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves December 738

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) November -1.5%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y November -3.0% -2.5%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate November 8.8% 8.7%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts December 252 240

15:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings November 5.996 6.05

Major US stock indexes ended the session in different directions, as losses in the health sector slowed the strongest start of the year on Wall Street in a decade, and important statistics that could influence the mood of market participants were not published.

Oil prices rose slightly, approaching 3-year highs. Support for oil has a small decrease in the number of drilling rigs in the US and a steady decline in OPEC production, while price increases were limited to strengthening the US dollar. Oil service company Baker Hughes reported on Friday that from December 30 to January 5, the number of active drilling rigs for oil production in the US fell by 5 pieces, to 742 units. The number of installations for gas production has not changed, amounting to 182 units. Meanwhile, the total number of drilling rigs (gas and oil) decreased by 5 units, to 924 units.

Gradually, the focus of investors' attention shifts to the quarterly results of JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BlackRock (BLK), which will be released on Friday, and will start the corporate reporting season in the US.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a decline (17 out of 30). Outsider were shares UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, -1.70%). Caterpillar Inc. was the growth leader. (CAT, + 2.56%).

Most sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The utilities sector grew most (+ 0.7%). The health sector showed the greatest decline (-0.5%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.05% 25.282.93 -12.94

Nasdaq + 0.29% 7.157.39 +20.83

S & P + 0.17% 2,747.70 +4.55

• Firms plan to expand operations to accommodate sustained demand; investment and employment intentions up

• Many firms expect stable sales growth or a return to a more sustainable pace, particularly in goods sector

• Indicators of capacity pressures and labor shortages picked up, "Reflecting strong demand and tightening labor markets"

• Q4 business outlook survey finds expectations for sales activity remain positive but point to some moderation ahead

• Apart from higher prime rates, credit conditions largely unchanged

• Inflation expectations are modest, unchanged from third quarter

• Rising labor costs, often related to upcoming increases in minimum wage as well as non-labor input costs, to put upward pressure on output prices

• Says in last 4-5 years romanian leu moved from 4.4 per euro to 4.65, not a large depreciation

• Salutes that preliminary data indicates 2017 budget deficit will be below 3 pct/gdp

• Monday's hike is not of a nature to be brusque on the economy

• Rate hike aimed at anchoring inflationary expectations

• Does not envision ample money market rate changes

• Says bank has more uncertainties over inflation fcast than it did in november

• Inflation will rise above cenbank's target in first part of year before slowing down

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Monday, dragged down by banking names.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei -

Hang Seng 30,899.53 +84.89 +0.28%

Shanghai 3,410.00 +18.25 +0.54%

S&P/ASX 6,130.40 +8.10 +0.13%

FTSE 7,712.77 -11.45 -0.15%

CAC 5,485.36 +14.61 +0.27%

DAX 13,353.96 +34.32 +0.26%

Crude $61.66 (+0.36%)

Gold $1,321.20 (-0.08%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

United Tech (UTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

• Raises deposit facility rate to 1.00 pct from 0.75 pct and lending facility rate to 3.00 pct from 2.75 pct

In January 2018, there was no sign of a loss of momentum in the sentix economic indices, which we were able to detect in the beginning of December. On the contrary: all regions of the world show a stable, positive and moderately improved economic picture. The US economic expectations, which are stimulated by the tax reform, have improved particularly significantly. In the eurozone, too, progress is continuing. And even latecomers such as Eastern Europe and Latin America continue to improve. The upswing is thus broad and synchronous. The likelihood of overheating is increasing.

In November 2017 compared with October 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 1.5% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October, the retail trade volume fell by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU28. In November 2017 compared with November 2016, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.8% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU28.

The 1.5% increase in the volume of retail trade in the euro area in November 2017, compared with October 2017, is due to rises of 2.3% for non-food products, of 1.2% for "Food, drinks and tobacco" and of 0.3% for automotive fuel. In the EU28, the 1.5% increase in the volume of retail trade is due to rises of 2.1% for non-food products, of 1.2% for "Food, drinks and tobacco" and of 0.3% for automotive fuel.

AUD/USD has recently broken a upside trend line.

As we can see on 1 hour time frame chart, the price just started a new bearish movement and it already tested the trend below.

Therefore, we can expect a further bearish movement in this pair.

• Prices in the last three months of 2017 were 2.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier although the annual change in December was lower than in November (3.9%)

• House prices in the final quarter (October-December) were 1.3% higher than in the previous quarter (July-September), down from 2.3% recorded in October and November

• On a monthly basis, prices also fell by 0.6% from November following a 0.3% increase in both October and November; this is the first fall since June 2017

• The average price of £225,021 at the end of the year is 2.4% higher than in January 2017 (£219,741)

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax Community Bank, said: "House prices in the three months to December were 1.3% higher than in the previous quarter; a gradual slowdown from 2.3% in both October and November. The annual rate of growth has also moderated to 2.7% from November's 3.9%. Ending the year, house prices in December fell by 0.6%; the first monthly decline in six months".

The consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged in December 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.8 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year. Average annual inflation reached 0.5% in 2017. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

• Economic expansion firmly in place, labor markets strong

• Legitimate to study alternative inflation-targeting frameworks, though not endorsing a change

• Fed should avoid any action that heightens risk of inverted yield curve

• Lack of wage pressure is behind his cautious stance on further rate increases

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in November 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.4% on the previous month. For October 2017, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 0.7% compared with September 2017 (primary +0.5%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had increased in November 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted +1.8% on the previous month.

In November 2017, domestic orders decreased by 0.4% and foreign orders decreased by 0.5% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 0.7%, new orders from other countries decreased 1.2% compared to October 2017.

European stock markets rose for a third straight day on Friday, tracking the global equity rally that has sent U.S. stocks to fresh records and Japanese shares to a 26-year high. Car maker shares were again among the biggest advancers after some broker upgrades, handing the sector its best week since July 2016.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday rallied by more than 200 points, putting the benchmark a quarter of the way from breaching 26,000, just 24 hours after marking a round-number milestone at 25,000. The Dow DJIA, +0.88% was up about 220 points, or 0.9%, at 25,294, with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.70% rising 0.7% at 2,742 and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.83% climbing by 0.8% at 7,136.

Asian shares were mixed on Monday, following the strong lead from Wall Street in the last session. With few data releases expected during the session, many investors awaited earnings releases from regional corporates later in the week.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2163 (2569)

$1.2131 (2131)

$1.2113 (2193)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2014

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1986 (2265)

$1.1954 (2087)

$1.1918 (2517)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 84737 contracts (according to data from January, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (5081);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3656 (1452)

$1.3630 (1060)

$1.3606 (905)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3552

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3499 (1007)

$1.3472 (2100)

$1.3441 (2664)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 24642 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3120);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 23324 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2664);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.