CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-11-2018

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07.11.2018
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, y/y, September -7% (forecast 7.7%)
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, September -18.3% (forecast -10%)
23:50
Japan: Current Account, bln, September 1.822 (forecast 1772.6)
22:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, November 8, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
03:00 China Trade Balance, bln October 31.69 35
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 51.3  
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 48.6 48.9
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) October 2.4% 2.4%
07:00 Germany Current Account September 15.3  
07:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln September 17.2  
07:45 France Trade Balance, bln September -5.6 -6.1
09:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin    
10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts    
13:15 Canada Housing Starts October 189 200
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims October 1631 1635
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0% 0.1%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September 0.4%  
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims November 214 214
14:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
17:30 Switzerland Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks    
19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25%  
19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement    
21:14
Major US stock indexes finished trading with a significant increase

Major US stock indices rose strongly, as investors gave impetus to the technology and health sector against the background of the results of the US midterm elections.

According to the results of the elections held on the eve of the elections, the Democratic Party won a majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republican Party of Donald Trump managed to maintain control over the Senate. Market participants estimate this outcome as the most favorable, since it is expected that such a distribution of forces in Congress will allow Trump to continue his economic policy, but will restrain his aggressive actions in the trade sphere.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell moderately, responding to data from the US Department of Energy, which reflected a larger than expected increase in oil reserves, an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves and an increase in oil production to a new record maximum. The US Department of Energy reported that in the week to November 2, oil reserves jumped 5.753 million barrels, to 431.787 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of only 2.433 million barrels. Oil reserves in the Cushing terminal increased by 2.419 million, to 34.296 million barrels, against an expected increase of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.852 million barrels, to 228.021 million barrels, compared with an expected decline of 1.7 million barrels.

Almost all the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (29 out of 30). The growth leader was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 4.20%). Outsiders were The Procter & Gamble Company (PG, -0.24%).

All sectors of the S & P recorded an increase. The health sector grew the most (+ 2.6%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,180.30 +545.29 +2.13%

S & P 500 2,813.89 +58.44 +2.12%

Nasdaq 100 7,570.75 +194.79 +2.64%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, November 8, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
03:00 China Trade Balance, bln October 31.69 35
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 51.3  
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 48.6 48.9
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) October 2.4% 2.4%
07:00 Germany Current Account September 15.3  
07:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln September 17.2  
07:45 France Trade Balance, bln September -5.6 -6.1
09:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin    
10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts    
13:15 Canada Housing Starts October 189 200
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims October 1631 1635
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0% 0.1%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September 0.4%  
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims November 214 214
14:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
17:30 Switzerland Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks    
19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25%  
19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement    
20:00
U.S.: Consumer Credit , September 10.92 (forecast 16.5)
20:00
New Zealand: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)
19:59
DJIA +1.74% 26,081.09 +446.08 Nasdaq +2.18% 7,536.45 +160.48 S&P +1.74% 2,803.44 +47.99
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +76.60 7117.28 +1.09% DAX +94.76 11579.10 +0.83% CAC 40 +62.75 5137.94 +1.24%
15:32
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 431.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 4.8 million barrels last week.

15:31
US policy direction is not likely to change significantly following the November 6 US midterm elections, says Moody's Investors Service

US policy direction is not likely to change significantly following the November 6 US midterm elections, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report. The rating agency expects President Donald Trump's administration to continue to drive federal policy in the key areas of trade, healthcare and immigration over the next two years, with varying credit impact across sectors.

"Amid high levels of political polarization, passing major legislation through a split Congress will be challenging and we expect the administration will likely continue to advance its policy goals using executive powers and administrative rulemaking rather than seeking legislative action," says Rebecca Karnovitz, a Moody's assistant vice president. "However, the likelihood of increased congressional scrutiny over the administration, led by the House, will slow the pace at which the executive branch can implement its agenda."


15:30
May said to invite ministers to read nearly-there Brexit text @forexflowlive
15:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, November 5.783 (forecast 2.433)
15:29
May said to invite ministers to read nearly-there Brexit text @forexflowlive
15:00
Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, October 61.8 (forecast 50.9)
14:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.81%, Nasdaq +0.85%, S&P +0.87%
14:27
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.71%, NASDAQ futures +0.96%

U.S. stock-index futures surged on Wednesday, as the outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections showed the anticipated split in Congress.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,085.80

-61.95

-0.28%

Hang Seng

26,147.69

+26.73

+0.10%

Shanghai

2,641.34

-18.01

-0.68%

S&P/ASX

5,896.90

+21.70

+0.37%

FTSE

7,131.60

+90.92

+1.29%

CAC

5,138.49

+63.30

+1.25%

DAX

11,584.19

+99.85

+0.87%

Crude

$62.76


+0.88%

Gold

$1,231.90


+0.46%


13:45
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

36.63

0.44(1.22%)

185

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

65.12

0.25(0.39%)

439

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,669.50

26.69(1.62%)

58444

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

45

0.10(0.22%)

2150

Apple Inc.

AAPL

205.9

2.13(1.05%)

483442

AT&T Inc

T

30.97

0.01(0.03%)

72305

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.32

0.18(1.37%)

69147

Boeing Co

BA

368

1.53(0.42%)

28902

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

131.7

2.37(1.83%)

12818

Chevron Corp

CVX

120

1.10(0.93%)

1950

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

47.05

0.55(1.18%)

20602

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

67.25

0.57(0.85%)

47484

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

145.82

0.35(0.24%)

2376

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

82.51

0.52(0.63%)

3784

Facebook, Inc.

FB

151.44

1.50(1.00%)

97633

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.58

0.04(0.42%)

33974

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

12.42

0.22(1.80%)

44391

General Electric Co

GE

9.51

0.09(0.96%)

259254

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

36.68

0.22(0.60%)

6541

Goldman Sachs

GS

229.59

1.39(0.61%)

3262

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,066.41

10.60(1.00%)

7173

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

25

0.12(0.48%)

410

Home Depot Inc

HD

183.99

1.98(1.09%)

3794

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

151

2.55(1.72%)

17730

Intel Corp

INTC

47.87

0.62(1.31%)

47160

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

124.05

0.93(0.76%)

25290

International Paper Company

IP

47.63

1.00(2.14%)

2450

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

142.7

0.13(0.09%)

1963

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

110.3

0.70(0.64%)

20901

McDonald's Corp

MCD

183.33

0.62(0.34%)

20450

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

108.99

1.27(1.18%)

107812

Nike

NKE

77.35

0.78(1.02%)

2489

Pfizer Inc

PFE

43.07

0.06(0.14%)

2352

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

91.58

0.07(0.08%)

1243

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

66.48

0.47(0.71%)

13124

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

343.8

2.74(0.80%)

35286

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.31

0.20(0.41%)

39246

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

34.8

0.38(1.10%)

51468

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

57.3

0.09(0.16%)

3244

Visa

V

142.44

1.65(1.17%)

11212

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

103.53

0.20(0.19%)

2278

Walt Disney Co

DIS

117.24

0.53(0.45%)

9987

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

30.36

0.21(0.70%)

1720

13:41
Downgrades before the market open

Downgrades before the market open

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

American Intl (AIG) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI

13:19
Company News: Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (FOXA) posts quarterly financials in line with analysts' estimates

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (FOXA) reported Q1 FY 2019 earnings of $0.52 per share (versus $0.49 in Q1 FY 2018), matching analysts’ consensus estimate.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $7.177 bln (+2.5% y/y), generally in-line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.226 bln.

FOXA rose to $47.25 (+0.19%) in pre-market trading.

12:58
Oil prices ticked up Wednesday morning, as the market consolidated steep losses of recent days and looked to a potential OPEC supply cut next weekend

  • Brent, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 1.5% at $73.21 a barrel midmorning on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

  • West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard, were trading up 1% at $62.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

12:41
The yield on the U.S 10-year Treasury note fell 1.6 basis points to 3.196%, while the 2-year Treasury yield advanced by 1.2 basis points to 2.932%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond lost 1.9 basis points to 3.409%
11:11
BMW AG's earnings from its core automotive business plunged 40% in the three months to Sept. 30 due to fierce price competition

New emissions rules in Europe, the high costs of product recalls and the U.S.-China trade dispute, the company said Wednesday. 

10:02
The volume of retail trade remained unchanged in the euro area (EA19) and decreased by 0.1% in the EU28, in September

In September 2018 compared with August 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade remained unchanged in the euro area (EA19) and decreased by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August, the retail trade volume increased by 0.3% both in the euro area and in the EU28. In September 2018 compared with September 2017, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU28.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Ireland (+2.9%), Latvia (+1.5%) and Estonia (+1.4%). The highest decreases were observed in Portugal (-1.7%), Austria (-1.0%), as well as in Belgium and the United Kingdom (both -0.8%)

10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), September 0% (forecast 0.1%)
10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), September 0.8% (forecast 0.7%)
09:07
Italian retail sales declined 0.8% in September

Year-on-year estimates of value of retail trade index showed a drop for September 2018, decreasing by 2.5% compared with September 2017. The quantity sold in retail trade fell too, contracting by 2.8% compared with the same month a year earlier.

On the month, the retail trade indices decreased compared with August 2018, dropping by 0.8% in value terms and by 0.7% in volume terms.

Despite a fall in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates, the underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the three-month on three-month movement, continued to show growth. While the value was up 0.3%, the volume was up 0.2%.

The retail trade index for large scale distribution was down 1.2% and small scale distribution decreased by 4.3% when compared with the same period a year earlier. The value of sales made online rose by 2.7% compared with September 2017.


08:50
FTSE +63.79 7104.47 +0.91% DAX +97.09 11581.43 +0.85% CAC +51.32 5126.51 +1.01%
08:42
UK house prices rose marginally by 0.7% in October, following two consecutive monthly falls
  • Prices in the three months to October were 1.5% higher than in the same three months a year earlier – slowing from the 2.5% annual growth recorded in September, and recording the lowest rate of growth since March 2013  

  • House prices in the latest quarter (August-October) were 0.2% higher than in the preceding three months (May-July)  

  • On a monthly basis, house prices rose marginally by 0.7% in October, following two consecutive monthly falls  

  • The average house price is now £227,869

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “The annual rate of house price growth has fallen from 2.5% in September to 1.5% in October, which is the lowest rate of annual growth since March 2013. However, this remains within our forecast annual growth range of 0-3% for 2018. House prices continue to be supported by the fact that the supply of new homes and existing properties available for sale remains low. Further house price support comes from an already high and improving employment rate and historically low mortgage rates which are creating higher rates of relative affordability. We see this continuing to be the case over the coming months and we remain supportive of our 0-3% forecast range.”

08:29
United Kingdom: Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y, October 1.5% (forecast 1.2%)
08:29
United Kingdom: Halifax house price index, October 0.7% (forecast 0.3%)
08:00
Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, October 753
07:46
Options levels on wednesday, November 7, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1565 (4989)

$1.1528 (2897)

$1.1498 (1851)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1462

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1401 (4565)

$1.1372 (4061)

$1.1335 (5427)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 97237 contracts (according to data from November, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (5427);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3234 (2712)

$1.3201 (1777)

$1.3174 (1578)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3128

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3041 (2324)

$1.3011 (2466)

$1.2976 (4397)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 28941 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3172);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 35406 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4397);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.22 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:40
ABC News projects that Republican Mike Braun will win the Senate race in Indiana

  • ABC News projects that Republican Mike Braun will win the Senate race in Indiana, effectively ending Democrat hopes of overturning GOP majority in Senate

07:38
New Zealand unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent q/q, down from 4.4 percent

In the September 2018 quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, down from 4.4 percent (revised) in the June 2018 quarter.

For women, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0 percent, down from 4.6 percent last quarter. For men, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, down from 4.2 percent.

The number of unemployed people fell 13,000 (down 10.5 percent) to 109,000. This mainly reflected 11,000 fewer unemployed youth (15–24-year-olds).

The fall in the unemployment rate in the latest quarter reflected a fall in the number of unemployed people and a strong rise in employment.

This fall, in tandem with a fall in underemployment, was key to the underutilisation rate falling to 11.3 percent, down from 12.0 percent last quarter.


07:31
Futures: DAX +0,5% FTSE +0,4% CAC +0,6%

A positive start to trading on the stock markets of Europe is expected, following the positive tone on Wall Street and on Asian markets. The results of the midterm elections in the United States remain in the focus of the markets. As already known, the Democrats received a majority in the House of Representatives.

07:29
Democrats will win control of U.S. House of Representatives - Fox News Channel

  • Democrats win net gain of 16 seats in U.S. House

07:25
German industrial production rose 0.2% in September

In September 2018, production in industry was up by 0.2% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In August 2018, the revised figure shows an increase of 0.1% (primary -0.3%) from July 2018.

In September 2018, production in industry excluding energy and construction remained at the same level of the previous month. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods was down by 1.0% and the production of consumer goods showed a decrease of 0.3%. The production of capital goods increased by 0.9%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 3.3% in September 2018 and the production in construction increased by 2.2%.


07:00
Germany: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM), September 0.2% (forecast 0.1%)
05:16
Japan: Coincident Index, September 114.6
05:02
Japan: Leading Economic Index , September 103.9 (forecast 103.9)
00:01
Japan: Labor Cash Earnings, YoY, September 1.1%

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