Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) | December | -0.3% | |
00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | November | 2.316 | 2.165 |
05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | December | 42.9 | |
06:45 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | December | 2.5% | |
07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | November | -0.5% | 0.3% |
07:45 | France | Trade Balance, bln | November | -4.1 | -6.0 |
08:00 | Switzerland | Foreign Currency Reserves | December | 749 | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | November | 0.8% | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 1.9% | |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index | December | -1.4% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y | December | 0.3% | 0.4% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | December | 109.5 | 108.4 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | December | -3.9 | -6.2 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | December | 3.4 | 3.0 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Business climate indicator | December | 1.09 | 0.99 |
13:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | November | -1.17 | -2.05 |
13:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | November | -55.5 | -53.8 |
15:00 | U.S. | JOLTs Job Openings | November | 7.079 | |
20:00 | U.S. | Consumer Credit | November | 25.38 | 18 |
22:30 | Australia | AIG Services Index | December | 55.1 |
Major US stock indexes rose moderately against the background of the last round of trade negotiations between the US and China, and despite fears of a possible government shutdown.
Representatives of the two largest economies in the world began negotiations in Beijing on Monday. This is the first one-on-one meeting since US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a 90-day truce in the trade war in December to secure the conclusion of a trade agreement.
Investors also attracted US data. The index of business activity in the US service sector, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), fell in December to 57.6 points from 60.7 points in November. Analysts predicted that the index fell to 59.1 points.
Oil prices rose on Monday, being on the path to a fifth consecutive sessional increase, helped by lower OPEC production and more stable stock markets.
Most DOW components are in the black (22 out of 30). The growth leader was The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, + 2.19%). The Coca-Cola Company (KO, -1.15%) was an outsider.
Almost all sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The greatest growth was shown by the service sector (+ 1.8%). Only utility sector decreased (-0.4%)
At the time of closing:
Dow 23,531.35 +98.19 +0.42%
S&P 500 2,549.69 +17.75 +0.70%
Nasdaq 100 6,823.47 +84.61 +1.26%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) | December | -0.3% | |
00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | November | 2.316 | 2.165 |
05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | December | 42.9 | |
06:45 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | December | 2.5% | |
07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | November | -0.5% | 0.3% |
07:45 | France | Trade Balance, bln | November | -4.1 | -6.0 |
08:00 | Switzerland | Foreign Currency Reserves | December | 749 | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | November | 0.8% | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 1.9% | |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index | December | -1.4% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y | December | 0.3% | 0.4% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | December | 109.5 | 108.4 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | December | -3.9 | -6.2 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | December | 3.4 | 3.0 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Business climate indicator | December | 1.09 | 0.99 |
13:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | November | -1.17 | -2.05 |
13:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | November | -55.5 | -53.8 |
15:00 | U.S. | JOLTs Job Openings | November | 7.079 | |
20:00 | U.S. | Consumer Credit | November | 25.38 | 18 |
22:30 | Australia | AIG Services Index | December | 55.1 |
The ISM registered 60.7 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November.
U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on Monday after Wall Street’s biggest one-day climb in the new year on Friday, as market participants’ focus shifted to the latest round of the U.S.-China trade talks.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 20,038.97 | +477.01 | +2.44% |
Hang Seng | 25,835.70 | +209.67 | +0.82% |
Shanghai | 2,533.09 | +18.22 | +0.72% |
S&P/ASX | 5,683.20 | +63.80 | +1.14% |
FTSE | 6,802.09 | -35.33 | -0.52% |
CAC | 4,705.40 | -31.72 | -0.67% |
DAX | 10,710.49 | -57.20 | -0.53% |
Crude | $48.98 | +2.13% | |
Gold | $1,294.10 | +0.65% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 49.85 | -0.45(-0.89%) | 24519 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,597.24 | 21.85(1.39%) | 125448 |
American Express Co | AXP | 97.8 | 0.16(0.16%) | 819 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 147.99 | -0.27(-0.18%) | 250284 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.67 | 0.33(1.09%) | 167167 |
Boeing Co | BA | 330.3 | 3.22(0.98%) | 16828 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 128.97 | 0.82(0.64%) | 1336 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 111.73 | 0.91(0.82%) | 3621 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 42.75 | -0.17(-0.40%) | 19323 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 55.17 | 0.04(0.07%) | 22980 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 71.7 | 0.55(0.77%) | 8692 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 137.56 | -0.39(-0.28%) | 79663 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.1 | 0.02(0.25%) | 56005 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 10.9 | 0.08(0.74%) | 8669 |
General Electric Co | GE | 8.53 | 0.30(3.65%) | 1976965 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 33.8 | 0.47(1.41%) | 2702 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 174.77 | -0.28(-0.16%) | 2666 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,070.48 | -0.23(-0.02%) | 5746 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 174.5 | 0.88(0.51%) | 2556 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 47.14 | -0.08(-0.17%) | 48641 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 117.95 | 0.63(0.53%) | 6313 |
International Paper Company | IP | 43.08 | 0.82(1.94%) | 2618 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 128.3 | 0.47(0.37%) | 2992 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 100.75 | 0.06(0.06%) | 10059 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 178.7 | 0.42(0.24%) | 746 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 76.02 | -0.25(-0.33%) | 2107 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 101.1 | -0.83(-0.81%) | 164072 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 42.91 | -0.09(-0.21%) | 4968 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 92.51 | 0.02(0.02%) | 1053 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 63.49 | -0.08(-0.13%) | 5005 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 321.5 | 3.81(1.20%) | 64258 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 47.6 | 0.03(0.06%) | 4979 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 30.1 | 0.15(0.50%) | 26237 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 241.8 | 2.18(0.91%) | 1724 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 56.79 | 0.43(0.76%) | 16024 |
Visa | V | 134 | 0.35(0.26%) | 7453 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 93.15 | -0.29(-0.31%) | 1390 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 109.9 | 0.29(0.26%) | 2491 |
Amazon (AMZN) initiated with a Buy at Pivotal Research Group; target $1920
Bank of America (BAC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
General Motors (GM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets
Alphabet A (GOOGL) upgraded to Buy at Pivotal Research Group; target $1240
In November 2018 compared with October 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat. In October, the retail trade volume increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28. In November 2018 compared with November 2017, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28.
Among Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Latvia (+2.4%), Poland and Estonia (both +2.1%). Decreases were observed in Slovenia (-1.6%) and Austria (-0.5%).
Don't Believe Balance Sheet Adjustment is Big Factor in Recent Market Turbulence
Says He Has Received No Direct Communication From White House About Job Performance
Meetings Between Presidents And Fed Chairs "Do Happen," Nothing Scheduled At Present
Says He Would Not Resign If President Asked Him To
People Should Know The Fed Has Strong Culture Around Non-Political Activity
Best Thing Fed Can do is be Transparent, Predictable as Possible
Always Prepared to Shift Stance of Policy, 'Significantly' If Necessary
Muted Inflation Readings Mean We Will Be Patient As Economy Evolves
We Will Be Prepared to Adjust Policy Quickly, Flexibly
Good Data Still Is Story Looking Into Rear View Mirror
Markets Are Pricing In Downside Risks
Markets Are Well Ahead of the Data, Expressing Concerns About Global Growth, Trade Tensions
Balance Sheet Adjustment Supposed to be as Interesting as Watching Paint Dry
Wages Moving Up 'Is Quite Welcome'
Higher Wage Growth Does Not Raise Concerns About Inflation
Consumer Spending Has Been Strong Right Through December
ISM Report Came In Well Below Expectations
ISM Survey Had Been At Historically High Levels
ISM Now At Level Consistent With Ongoing Moderate Growth
Fact That ISM Survey Moved Down So Much In One Month Worth Keeping Eye On
US Data Seem To Be On Track To Sustain Good Momentum Into New Year
Wind Down Mechanical by Design to Avoid Creating Uncertainty
Steady Nature of Reductions Keeps Policy Focus on Fed Funds Rate
Policy Path Not 'Set in Stone', Can Be Adjusted For Unexpected
Acknowledges Recent Discussion of Balance Sheet Policy; Doesn't Mention Trump Administration
Situation and expectations fall slightly once again.
What is worrying about the current loss of momentum is the policy's unwillingness to react, which is obviously unaware of the possible implications. Investors do not expect a quick reaction from the central banks either.
The US President, too, is becoming increasingly entangled in a secondary war theatre, and the US shutdown is strengthening the downward momentum in the USA as well. The US overall index falls for the third time to only 6.6 points. Eastern Europe and, above all, Latin America are viewed somewhat more positively.
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in November 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.0% on the previous month. For October 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 0.2% compared with September 2018 (primary +0.3%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in November 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.8% on the previous month.
Domestic orders increased by 2.4% and foreign orders decreased by 3.2% in November 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 11.6%, new orders from other countries increased 2.3% compared to October 2018.
In November 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 4.4% compared with October 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 1.4% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.2% was recorded.
According to estimates of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail turnover 2018 in Germany is expected to be between 1.4% and 1.5% higher in real terms than in 2017. In nominal terms turnover growth is expected between 3.1% and 3.3%. This estimation is based on data for the first eleven months of 2018. According to provisional data, turnover in retail trade in November 2018 increased 1.1% in real terms and 2.9% in nominal terms from November 2017. The number of days open for sale was 26 both in November 2018 and November 2017.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1534 (419)
$1.1515 (375)
$1.1502 (528)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1423
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1333 (2624)
$1.1301 (7404)
$1.1264 (2952)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 59546 contracts (according to data from January, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (7404);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2888 (261)
$1.2874 (116)
$1.2850 (35)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2748
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2641 (319)
$1.2595 (633)
$1.2541 (793)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 18186 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1654);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 20823 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 4
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
Hang Seng | 561.67 | 25626.03 | 2.24 |
KOSPI | 16.55 | 2010.25 | 0.83 |
ASX 200 | -14 | 5619.4 | -0.25 |
FTSE 100 | 144.76 | 6837.42 | 2.16 |
DAX | 351.03 | 10767.69 | 3.37 |
CAC 40 | 125.63 | 4737.12 | 2.72 |
Dow Jones | 746.94 | 23433.16 | 3.29 |
S&P 500 | 84.05 | 2531.94 | 3.43 |
NASDAQ Composite | 275.36 | 6738.86 | 4.26 |
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