CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-03-2018

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +375.67 21417.76 +1.79%

TOPIX +21.51 1716.30 +1.27%

Hang Seng +624.34 30510.73 +2.09%

CSI 300 +48.46 4066.56 +1.21%

Euro Stoxx 50 +2.54 3357.86 +0.08%

FTSE 100 +30.77 7146.75 +0.43%

DAX +23.00 12113.87 +0.19%

CAC 40 +3.00 5170.23 +0.06%

DJIA +9.36 24884.12 +0.04%

S&P 500 +7.18 2728.12 +0.26%

NASDAQ +41.30 7372.01 +0.56%

S&P/TSX +3.91 15545.19 +0.03%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2405 +0,56%

GBP/USD $1,3887 +0,29%

USD/CHF Chf0,94048 +0,08%

USD/JPY Y106,11 -0,07%

EUR/JPY Y131,64 +0,49%

GBP/JPY Y147,37 +0,22%

AUD/USD $0,7827 +0,79%

NZD/USD $0,7294 +0,94%

USD/CAD C$1,28754 -0,69%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV 0.6% 0.6%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV 2.8% 2.2%

01:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) January 120.2 119.5

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) January 107.4 107.8

07:45 France Trade Balance, bln January -3.5 -4.35

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves February 731.4

08:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index February -0.6% 0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y February 2.2% 1.6%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV 0.7% 0.6%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV 2.8% 2.7%

13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report February 234 195

13:20 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter IV -0.6% 0.3%

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions January -3.19 -2.45

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV -0.1% 2.1%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV 2.7% -0.1%

13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln January -53.1 -55.1

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 1.25% 1.25%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories March 3.019 3

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit January 18.45 17.9

23:50 Japan Current Account, bln January 0.797 -23.9

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV 0.6% 0%

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter IV 2.5% 0.7%

Major US stock indices rose slightly on Tuesday, helped by easing tensions around the Korean peninsula and fading fears over potentially dangerous metal import tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump.

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that new import duties would not apply to the supply of steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico, if the parties could get a revision of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). "If negotiations succeed, these fees will not apply to Mexico and Canada," Mnuchin said. Similar statements were made the day before by US President Donald Trump.

In addition, orders for goods produced in the US reportedly recorded the largest decline in six months in January, and equipment costs seem to have slowed after strong growth in 2017. Production orders fell 1.4% due to a wide decline in demand, the Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday. This was the biggest fall since July 2017 and ended the growth period for five consecutive months.

However, the data showed that the index of economic optimism in the US, calculated by the Investor's Business Daily newspaper and the research firm TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, declined moderately in March, and retreated from the 13-year high that was reached in February. The index fell in March by 1.1 points, to 55.6 points, while experts expected it to grow to 58.2 points. Recall, the value of the index above 50 points indicates optimism. It is worth emphasizing that the index is above the level of 50 for 18 consecutive months, which is the longest series for more than a decade.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (16 of 30). Outsider were shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, -1.20%). Caterpillar Inc. was the growth leader. (CAT, + 1.78%).

Most sectors of the S & P recorded a rise. The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 1.8%). The largest decrease was shown by the utilities sector (-1.0%).

At closing:

Dow + 0.04% 24,884.12 +9.36

Nasdaq + 0.56% 7.372.01 +41.30

S & P + 0.26% 2,728.12 +7.18

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $9.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $239.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.6 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.7 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $8.6 billion or 10.0 percent to $77.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up eight of the last nine months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $247.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $81.3 billion.

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday, supported by receding fears over global trade war and signs of North Korea denuclearization talks .

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,417.76 +375.67 +1.79%

Hang Seng 30,510.73 +624.34 +2.09%

Shanghai 3,290.17 +33.25 +1.02%

S&P/ASX 5,962.40 +67.40 +1.14%

FTSE 7,173.06 +57.08 +0.80%

CAC 5,210.67 +43.44 +0.84%

DAX 12,207.67 +116.80 +0.97%

Crude $63.07 (+0.80%)

Gold $1,333.30 (+1.02%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

• We are either at or beyond full employment now

• We think the unemployment rate will go below 4 pct this year

• Thinks it is possible to make progress on EU citizens' rights in coming weeks

• Problem is there is no global architecture for future relationship as Britain has outlined

• Goal for denuclearisation has not changed as it was aim passed down from previous generations

• He understands S.Korea - U.S. military drills in april will be similar to previous yrs

• Expressed hopes S.Korea - U.S. military drills would be 'managed' once situation on Korean peninsula is stabilised

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in February 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The 0.4% increase compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for air transport. Foreign package holidays also recorded an increase, as did clothing and footwear due to the end of the seasonal sales. In contrast, prices for heating oil, coffee and overnight stays in hotels decreased.

Moreover, the rate of expansion quickened from January‟s five-month low and was solid overall. The acceleration at the eurozone level reflected sharper rises in Germany and France, and renewed growth in Italy.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI - which tracks the month-on-month changes in retail sales in the bloc‟s biggest three economies combined - rose to 52.3 in February, from 50.8 in January.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2427 (4226)

$1.2396 (2719)

$1.2372 (4692)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2341

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2309 (6691)

$1.2290 (1842)

$1.2263 (5637)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 133430 contracts (according to data from March, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6691);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3930 (3585)

$1.3899 (1843)

$1.3876 (2271)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3828

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3787 (2246)

$1.3760 (1926)

$1.3726 (1615)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 48938 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3585);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 45992 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2530);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.94 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in January 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a 0.5 per cent fall in December 2017.

"There were offsetting movements by industry with rises in other retailing (1.0 per cent), household goods retailing (0.1 per cent), and cafes, restaurants and takeaways (0.1 per cent) being offset by falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessories (-0.7 per cent) and department stores (-0.6 percent)," Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys at the ABS, said. "Food retailing was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent)."

Increased goods imports, flat goods exports and a widening net primary income deficit were the main contributors to the current account deficit increase in the December quarter 2017, according to latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The seasonally adjusted current account deficit rose $3,011 million to $14,024 million in the December quarter 2017. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services deficit in the December quarter 2017 was $117 million, a turnaround of $2,094 million from a surplus of $1,977 million in the September quarter 2017. Imports of goods and services rose $1,953 million and exports of goods and services fell $140 million. The net primary income deficit widened $899m in the December quarter 2017.

• Public infrastructure investment supporting economy

• Further progress in reducing unemployment, having inflation return to target likely to be gradual

• Appreciating exchange rate could slow economic activity, inflation

• Inflation likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low wage growth, strong retail competition

• Household consumption is a source of uncertainty

• Board judged holding policy rates consistent with sustainable economic growth, achieving inflation target

• Outlook for non-mining investment has improved

• Australian economy outlook is for growth faster this year than last