Index | Change items | Closing price | % change |
Nikkei | -232.81 | 21687.65 | -1.06% |
SHANGHAI | +3.45 | 2606.24 | +0.13% |
ASX 200 | +10.50 | 5840.80 | +0.18% |
FTSE 100 | -13.44 | 7114.66 | -0.19% |
DAX | +21.03 | 11468.54 | +0.18% |
CAC 40 | -7.66 | 5085.78 | -0.15% |
DJIA | +264.98 | 25380.74 | +1.06% |
S&P 500 | +28.63 | 2740.37 | +1.06% |
NASDAQ | +128.16 | 7434.06 | +1.75% |
Pare | Closed | % change |
EUR/USD | $1,1402 | +0,78% |
GBP/USD | $1,2994 | +1,74% |
USD/CHF | Chf1,0022 | -0,54% |
USD/JPY | Y112,64 | -0,26% |
EUR/JPY | Y128,46 | +0,54% |
GBP/JPY | Y146,367 | +1,52% |
AUD/USD | $0,7197 | +1,69% |
NZD/USD | $0,6640 | +1,84% |
USD/CAD | C$1,30841 | -0,56% |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Producer price index, y/y | Quarter III | 1.5% | |
00:30 | Australia | Producer price index, q / q | Quarter III | 0.3% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | September | 0.3% | 0.3% |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | September | 0.3% | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | September | 0.4% | -0.3% |
08:50 | France | Manufacturing PMI | October | 52.5 | 51.2 |
08:55 | Germany | Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.7 | 52.3 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.2 | 52.1 |
09:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | October | 52.1 | 52.0 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | October | 18 | 15 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | October | 13 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | October | 34.5 | 34.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | October | 121 | 183 |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | October | 0.3% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | October | 62.7% | |
12:30 | Canada | Unemployment rate | October | 5.9% | 5.9% |
12:30 | Canada | Employment | October | 63.3 | 10 |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | September | 0.53 | 0.15 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | September | -53.2 | -53.6 |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | October | 134 | 190 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | October | 3.7% | 3.7% |
14:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | September | 2.3% | 0.5% |
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | November | 875 |
Major US stock indexes have risen significantly, helped by the rally in the services sector and the industrial goods sector after Donald Trump’s statements that trade negotiations with China are “going well.” The market was also supported by optimistic quarterly results.
In addition, the US data was in focus, the report showed that construction spending in the US remained unchanged in September, as the continued growth in private construction projects was offset by the largest decline in government spending in a year. The Commerce Department said that the constant value of construction spending followed a revised 0.8 percent jump in August. Earlier it was reported that in August construction costs increased by 0.1%. Economists predicted that by the end of September construction expenditures increased by 0.1%.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that in October, the manufacturing index fell to 57.7 points from 59.8 points in September. It was predicted that the index will be 59.0 points. New orders of companies in October continued to grow, but at a slower pace, the price index jumped up, while the employment index continued to grow, but at a slower pace.
Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (21 out of 30). The growth leader was DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP, + 8.01%). The outsider was Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -1.73%).
All sectors of the S & P showed an increase. The service sector grew the most (+ 2.3%).
At the time of closing:
Dow 25,380.74 +264.98 +1.06%
S & P 500 2,740.37 +28.63 +1.06%
Nasdaq 100 7,434.06 +128.16 +1.75%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Producer price index, y/y | Quarter III | 1.5% | |
00:30 | Australia | Producer price index, q / q | Quarter III | 0.3% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | September | 0.3% | 0.3% |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | September | 0.3% | |
08:15 | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | September | 0.4% | -0.3% |
08:50 | France | Manufacturing PMI | October | 52.5 | 51.2 |
08:55 | Germany | Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.7 | 52.3 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.2 | 52.1 |
09:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | October | 52.1 | 52.0 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | October | 18 | 15 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | October | 13 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | October | 34.5 | 34.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | October | 121 | 183 |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | October | 0.3% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | October | 62.7% | |
12:30 | Canada | Unemployment rate | October | 5.9% | 5.9% |
12:30 | Canada | Employment | October | 63.3 | 10 |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | September | 0.53 | 0.15 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | September | -53.2 | -53.6 |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | October | 134 | 190 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | October | 3.7% | 3.7% |
14:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | September | 2.3% | 0.5% |
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | November | 875 |
“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains moderately strong, with the New Orders Index easing to below 60 percent for the first time since April 2017, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low but improving, and the Backlog of Orders Index remaining steady. Consumption softened, with production and employment continuing to expand, but at lower levels compared to September. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries (increased), inventories and imports — retained September’s levels. Continued supply chain delivery difficulties led to an increased consumption of inventory, and import expansion was stable. Lead-time extensions continue, while steel and aluminum prices are stabilizing. Supplier labor issues and transportation difficulties continue to disrupt production, but at more manageable levels”.
Canadian manufacturers reported a sustained upturn in overall business conditions in October, but the rate of improvement slowed for the fourth month running.
This was highlighted by a fall in the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 53.9, from 54.8 in September. The latest reading signalled the weakest improvement in manufacturing conditions since January 2017. Softer rates of output and new business growth were the main factors weighing on the headline index in October
U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Thursday, as rebound from October sell-off continues.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 21,687.65 | -232.81 | -1.06% |
Hang Seng | 25,416.00 | +436.31 | +1.75% |
Shanghai | 2,606.24 | +3.45 | +0.13% |
S&P/ASX | 5,840.80 | +10.50 | +0.18% |
FTSE | 7,135.33 | +7.23 | +0.10% |
CAC | 5,091.00 | -2.44 | -0.05% |
DAX | 11,494.04 | +46.53 | +0.41% |
Crude | $65.07 | -0.37% | |
Gold | $1,230.40 | +1.27% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 65 | -0.04(-0.06%) | 281 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,621.00 | 22.99(1.44%) | 86543 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 42.29 | 1.00(2.42%) | 28941 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 219.84 | 0.98(0.45%) | 440334 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.7 | 0.02(0.07%) | 35294 |
Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE | ABX | 12.88 | 0.33(2.63%) | 40536 |
Boeing Co | BA | 358 | 3.14(0.88%) | 8550 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 122.74 | 1.42(1.17%) | 5319 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 111.74 | 0.09(0.08%) | 940 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 65.9 | 0.44(0.67%) | 22942 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 136.73 | 1.29(0.95%) | 538 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 80 | 0.32(0.40%) | 574 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 152.38 | 0.59(0.39%) | 165983 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 222.09 | 1.75(0.79%) | 654 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 9.57 | 0.02(0.21%) | 23862 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 11.79 | 0.14(1.20%) | 4752 |
General Electric Co | GE | 10.1 | 0.00(0.00%) | 234913 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 36.53 | -0.06(-0.16%) | 35471 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 227 | 1.63(0.72%) | 1262 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 147.46 | 2.64(1.82%) | 215 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 46.95 | 0.07(0.15%) | 37926 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 115.9 | 0.47(0.41%) | 12527 |
International Paper Company | IP | 45.21 | -0.15(-0.33%) | 977 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 140.2 | 0.21(0.15%) | 2510 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 106.47 | -2.55(-2.34%) | 1985 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 106.91 | 0.10(0.09%) | 54820 |
Nike | NKE | 75.17 | 0.13(0.17%) | 4933 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 42.94 | -0.12(-0.28%) | 16068 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 58.47 | 0.20(0.34%) | 2724 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 339.84 | 2.52(0.75%) | 55172 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 47.98 | 0.10(0.21%) | 1810 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 34.8 | 0.05(0.14%) | 36225 |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 125 | 0.79(0.64%) | 2707 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 262.56 | 1.21(0.46%) | 426 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 57.15 | 0.06(0.11%) | 4775 |
Visa | V | 138.6 | 0.75(0.54%) | 7990 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 100.29 | 0.01(0.01%) | 2063 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 115.1 | 0.27(0.24%) | 1631 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 29.72 | -0.41(-1.36%) | 4254 |
"Misleading press articles today on Brexit & financial services. Reminder: EU may grant and withdraw equivalence in some financial services autonomously. As with other 3rd countries, EU ready to have close regulatory dialogue with UK in full respect for autonomy of both parties".
Pfizer (PFE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
From the third quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.7-percent increase in output and a 2.4-percent increase in hours worked
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 1.2 percent in the third quarter of 2018, reflecting a 3.5-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 2.2-percent increase in labor productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.5 percent over the last four quarters.
In the week ending October 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 211,750 to 212,000.
UK Econ In Process Of Adjusting New, Uncertain Relationship With EU
Expectations Of Households And Business Are Diverging From Base Case Assumption
Interest Rate Could Rise Or Fall In Event Of "Abrupt And Disorderly" Brexit
No Flexibility To Delay Return Of Inflation To Target If Supply Hit Harder Than Demand
Smooth Brexit Could See GBP Gains, Investment Boost
"Little That Monetary Policy Can Do" To Offset Supply Shocks
Forecasts Little Changed From August Inflation Report
Forecasts Based On Market Expectation Of One Rate Rise A Year Through 2021
Sees Excess Demand Building Over Forecast Period, Boosting Domestic Costs
Sees Risk That Global Financial Conditions Could Tighten Faster Than Expected
Sees Risk Of "Further Escalation" Of Restrictions On Trade
10% Rise In US Tariffs On All Trade Partners Would Lower Global Output By 1%
Impact Of Higher Trade Barriers So Far Limited To China And US
Further Rate Rises Needed If Economy Grows As Expected
Rate Rises Over Coming Years Would Be Limited And Gradual
BOE Sees Inflation Above 2% Target Until End Of 2021
DowDuPont (DWDP) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $0.74 per share (versus $0.55 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.71.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $20.123 bln (+31.1% y/y), slightly missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $20.235 bln.
DWDP rose to $56.25 (+4.32%) in pre-market trading.
Sterling gains 1% to $1.2895 after reports that a deal had been agreed, though other reports suggest otherwise.
Output growth weakened, while new order inflows and employment both declined for the first time since July 2016 (the PMI survey directly following the EU referendum). The drop in new business was partly driven by rising global trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties. T
he seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a 27-month low of 51.1, down from September's revised reading of 53.6 (originally published as 53.8). Data collection was undertaken between 12-26 October, closing before the Chancellor's Budget announcement on Monday 29th.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in October 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
The 0.2% increase compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for heating oil and new cars. In contrast, prices for international package holidays and overnight stays in hotels decreased.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1474 (1463)
$1.1440 (1687)
$1.1394 (802)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1354
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1332 (5963)
$1.1316 (3644)
$1.1292 (3360)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 91269 contracts (according to data from October, 31) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (5963);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3016 (1091)
$1.2975 (962)
$1.2937 (1613)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2875
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2780 (3170)
$1.2759 (2391)
$1.2742 (1862)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 26291 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3214);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 32765 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3170);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.25 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 31
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
A positive start to trading on the stock markets of Europe is expected, following the growth of Wall Street quotes yesterday and mostly positive trading in Asia today.
Headline PMI ticks up to four-month high of 52.9
Foreign demand improves for first time in five months
Output price inflation jumps to decade-high
Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “With PMI data for Q3 pointing to a slowdown in Japanese manufacturing sector growth momentum, a renewed acceleration at the beginning of the fourth quarter is welcome news, with the key macroeconomic health gauges of output, new orders and employment all growing at faster rates. A rebound in export sales is also a positive development given the backdrop of global trade woes. “However, whether the upturn is the start of a new trend or a transitory response to September’s weather-impacted performance remains to be seen. Anecdotes suggest that supply chains were still suffering during October from the aftermath of natural disasters in the region”
British Prime Minister Theresa May has made a preliminary deal with the European Union, which will give British financial companies access to European markets after Brexit.
British and European negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement on all aspects of the future partnership in the service sector, as well as data exchange, The Times reports, citing government sources.
The services transaction will provide British companies with access to European markets.
The British pound jumped 0.5% against the dollar after the announcement.
According to the Times report, the EU will agree that the UK has “equivalent” rules for Brussels, and British financial services companies will be allowed to operate in Europe, as they are now.
Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index increased by 3.0 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 0.4 per cent in September (revised). The non-rural and base metals subindices increased in the month, while the rural index decreased. In Australian dollar terms, the index increased by 3.7 per cent in October.
Over the past year, the index has increased by 13.1 per cent in SDR terms, led by higher LNG, iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal prices. The index has increased by 22.3 per cent in Australian dollar terms.
Consistent with previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information. Using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the index increased by 2.8 per cent in October in SDR terms, to be 16.8 per cent higher over the past year.
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,707m in September 2018, an increase of $308m on the surplus in August 2018.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,017m in September 2018, an increase of $675m on the surplus in August 2018.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $283m (1%) to $37,496m. Non-rural goods rose $678m (3%), rural goods rose $33m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (6%). Non-monetary gold fell $525m (26%). Services credits rose $96m (1%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $392m (1%) to $34,479m. Capital goods fell $607m (9%) and non-monetary gold fell $59m (14%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $210m (2%) and consumption goods rose $53m (1%). Services debits rose $11m.
Production was broadly unchanged, as total new business rose only slightly. Subdued sales were partly linked to weaker foreign demand, with export sales declining for the seventh month in a row. Relatively soft market conditions contributed to a further drop in workforce numbers, albeit modest, while buying activity rose only slightly. Furthermore, confidence regarding the business outlook for output dipped to an 11-month low.
The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose only slightly from 50.0 in September to 50.1 in October. This signalled that operating conditions were broadly unchanged at the start of the fourth quarter, after stagnating in the previous month. Prior to September, the health of the sector had improved for 15 consecutive months.
The still positive outlook for general economic development and unemployment continues to be clouded by below-average expectations of consumers’ own budget. A reason is likely to be inflation, which is perceived more strongly and is subduing households’ purchasing power.
At -6 points, the October 2018 consumer sentiment index is almost unchanged in comparison to July (-7 points). Since the marked decline in the summer, prospects have remained practically the same. The latest survey therefore confirms that consumers are less optimistic about the future than in the first half of 2018. Nevertheless, consumer sentiment is still slightly above the long-term average (-9 points).
Annual house price growth in October slows to 1.6%
Prices flat month-on-month after accounting for seasonal effects
While overall housing market activity still relatively subdued, recent years have seen a recovery in first time buyer number
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “October saw a slowdown in annual house price growth to 1.6% from 2.0% in September. As a result, annual house price growth moved below the narrow range of c2-3% prevailing over the previous 12 months. “However, this was broadly in line with our expectations, as the squeeze on household budgets and the uncertain economic outlook is likely to have dampened demand, even though borrowing costs remain low by historic standards and unemployment is at 40-year lows. We continue to expect house prices to rise by around 1% over the course of 2018”.
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