The final reading for the February Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 93.8 compared to a preliminary reading of 95.5 and the January final reading of 91.2.
Economists had forecast the index to be upwardly revised to 95.7.
According to the report, the index of the current economic conditions decreased to 108.5 in February from January's final reading of 108.8. Meanwhile, the index of consumer expectations rose to 84.9 from January’s final reading of 79.9. E
"Although sentiment was still above last month's low, the bounce-back from the end of the Federal shutdown faded in late February", the report noted. "While the overall level of confidence remains diminished, it is still quite positive. Nonetheless, aside from last month, it was only lower in one month since Trump's election, but barely, at 93.4 in July 2017."
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed on Friday its index of manufacturing activity came in at 54.2 percent last month, down 2.4 percentage points from the unrevised January figure of 56.6 percent, missing economists' forecast for a 55.5 percent reading.
A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.
The monthly drop by the headline index was primarily attributable to slower increases in the production index (-5.7 percentage points m-o-m to 54.8 percent in February), the employment index (-3.2 percentage point m-o-m to 52.3 percent), the new orders index (-2.7 percentage points m-o-m to 55.5 percent) and the supplier deliveries index (-1.3 percentage points m-o-m to 54.9 percent) .
Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for February (54.2 percent) corresponds to a 3.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."
Statistics Canada announced on Friday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent m-o-m in December, following the same drop in November. Economists had forecast a flat m-o-m performance in December.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Canada’s economy edged up 0.1 percent q-o-q after an unrevised 0.5 percent q-o-q growth in the third quarter. That was the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2016.
In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an unrevised 2.0 percent gain in the prior quarter and economists expectation of 1.2 percent y-o-y advance.
According to the report, real gross national income fell 1.0 percent, largely owing to lower export prices of crude oil and crude bitumen. Meanwhile, final domestic demand was down 0.4 percent as the investment continued to fall.
The slowing of GDP in Canada in the fourth quarter mainly reflected a 2.7 percent drop in investment spending. Exports of goods and services (-0.1 percent) also edged down. These declines, however, were largely offset by higher inventory accumulation, as businesses accumulated $12.5 billion of non-farm inventory following the investment of $3.5 billion in the previous quarter. The economy-wide stock-to-sales ratio increased from 0.825 in the third quarter to 0.840 in the fourth quarter.
U.S. stock-index rose on Friday as investors were optimistic about a U.S.-China trade deal, while assessing/awaiting some key economic data.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 21,602.69 | +217.53 | +1.02% |
Hang Seng | 28,812.17 | +178.99 | +0.63% |
Shanghai | 2,994.01 | +53.05 | +1.80% |
S&P/ASX | 6,192.70 | +23.70 | +0.38% |
FTSE | 7,108.64 | +33.91 | +0.48% |
CAC | 5,269.41 | +28.88 | +0.55% |
DAX | 11,651.81 | +136.17 | +1.18% |
Crude | $57.06 | -0.28% | |
Gold | $1,306.80 | -0.71% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALCOA INC. | AA | 29.79 | 0.29(0.98%) | 12738 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 52.7 | 0.29(0.55%) | 5089 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,652.54 | 12.71(0.78%) | 49189 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 174 | 0.85(0.49%) | 90458 |
AT&T Inc | T | 31.25 | 0.13(0.42%) | 43293 |
Boeing Co | BA | 444.94 | 4.98(1.13%) | 43032 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 138.3 | 0.96(0.70%) | 11170 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 119.6 | 0.02(0.02%) | 844 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 52.08 | 0.31(0.60%) | 26844 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 64.48 | 0.50(0.78%) | 10084 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 165.41 | 1.37(0.84%) | 5512 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 79.24 | 0.21(0.27%) | 6938 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 162.3 | 0.85(0.53%) | 83146 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.83 | 0.06(0.68%) | 108590 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 13.04 | 0.14(1.09%) | 49188 |
General Electric Co | GE | 10.49 | 0.10(0.96%) | 605200 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 39.75 | 0.27(0.68%) | 1776 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 198.19 | 1.49(0.76%) | 776 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,127.50 | 7.58(0.68%) | 1320 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 19.94 | 0.21(1.06%) | 42322 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 186 | 0.86(0.46%) | 11780 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 53.35 | 0.39(0.74%) | 19305 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 137 | 0.36(0.26%) | 7119 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 105.1 | 0.74(0.71%) | 29237 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 184.3 | 0.46(0.25%) | 6473 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 112.85 | 0.82(0.73%) | 89911 |
Nike | NKE | 86.75 | 1.24(1.45%) | 24921 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 43.51 | 0.16(0.37%) | 5213 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 98.94 | 0.39(0.40%) | 26988 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 70.67 | 0.41(0.58%) | 13538 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 306.99 | -12.89(-4.03%) | 441556 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 45.51 | 0.17(0.37%) | 32968 |
Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 133.22 | 0.31(0.23%) | 100 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 30.99 | 0.21(0.68%) | 159609 |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 126.5 | 0.83(0.66%) | 2198 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 244.15 | 1.93(0.80%) | 8032 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 57.2 | 0.28(0.49%) | 351 |
Visa | V | 148.7 | 0.58(0.39%) | 19978 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 99.4 | 0.41(0.41%) | 11418 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 113.4 | 0.56(0.50%) | 1598 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 33.92 | -0.48(-1.40%) | 28250 |
The Commerce Department reported on Friday the U.S. personal income edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m in January after a 1.0 percent climb in February, recording the first fall since November of 2015.
According to the report, the decrease in personal income in January primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments), and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.
The Commerce Department announced on Friday that consumer spending in the U.S. fell 0.5 percent m-o-m in December, following a revised 0.6 percent m-o-m advance in November (originally a 0.4 percent m-o-m gain). That was the biggest decrease in personal spending since September 2009. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.2 percent m-o-m drop.
Meanwhile, consumer income surged 1.0 percent m-o-m in December after a revised 0.3 percent m-o-m increase in the previous month (originally a 1.0 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had expected the personal income to increase by 0.4 percent m-o-m in December.
The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected increases in personal dividend income, compensation of employees, and farm proprietors’ income.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in December, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in the prior month (originally a gain of 0.1 percent m-o-m).
Economists had projected the index would increase 0.2 percent m-o-m.
In the 12 months through December, the core PCE increased 1.9 percent, the same pace as in the 12 months through October. Economists had forecast a gain of 1.9 percent y-o-y.
A senior North Korean diplomat on Friday questioned the need to continue denuclearization talks with the United States, saying leader Kim Jong-un appears to be changing his mind as well.
In an interview with Yonhap News Agency, Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui stated that her country should be rewarded adequately for more than a year of halts to nuclear and long-range missile testing: with the lifting of at least some U.N. sanctions.
"I think about whether (we) should continue talks," she said, recalling leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's message, in which he said his regime will be left with no other choice than pursuing a "different path" to dialogue unless the U.S. takes reciprocal steps.
"I (got) a feeling that (Chairman Kim) is changing his thought a bit" toward the negotiations with the U.S., Choe said. "It's my personal feeling."
Choe said her country has already taken a lot of goodwill measures emphasizing that they have stayed away from nuclear and missile tests for 15 months.
According to Choe, the U.S. has gone too far toward the "reckless assertion" that North Korea should dismantle nuclear and missile facilities.
She accused the Trump administration of having moved the goal-posts, saying it initially talked about dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear complex and is now taking issue with other sites as well.
The diplomat said Kim had put forward his "best offer" of dismantling the Yongbyon facilities under the inspection of U.S. nuclear experts.
Choe said she also got the impression that Kim feels "very odd" about the way the U.S. calculates the price of the Yongbyon dismantlement.
"We have lots of thinking about the U.S. response," she added.
China can commit to not maintain the yuan at an artificially low level
Chinese government has promised to shift towards a market-driven economy, and that means it has to have a fully flexible exchange rate regime
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday that China would need to report any intervention in the foreign exchange market under a currency deal being negotiated with the United States.
According to the report from Istat, in 2018 GDP at current prices increased by 1.7% (to 1,753,949 million euro) compared with the previous year. The chained volume measure of GDP increased by 9%. Gross fixed capital formation increased in volume by 3.4% and final consumption expenditure by 0.5%. Imports of goods and services increased by 2.3% and exports by 1.9%.
National demand has contributed to GDP growth by +1.0 percentage points (+0.9 excluding changes in inventories) and net exports by -0.1 points. Value added in volume increased in all the main sectors: 1.8% in mining and quarrying, manufacturing and other industrial activities, 1.7% in constructions, 0.9% in agriculture, forestry and fishing and 0.7% in services activities. General Government net borrowing was -37,605 million euro: -2.1% of GDP, compared with -2.4% in 2017.
According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8% in January 2019, stable compared with December 2018 and down from 8.6% in January 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.5% in January 2019, down from 6.6% in December 2018 and from 7.2% in January 2018. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.
Eurostat estimates that 16.222 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 12.848 million in the euro area, were unemployed in January 2019. Compared with December 2018, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 56 000 in the EU28 and by 23 000 in the euro area. Compared with January 2018, unemployment fell by 1.536 million in the EU28 and by 1.233 million in the euro area.
In January 2019, 3.375 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.383 million were in the euro area. Compared with January 2018, youth unemployment decreased by 184 000 in the EU28 and by 141 000 in the euro area. In January 2019, the youth unemployment rate was 14.9% in the EU28 and 16.5% in the euro area, compared with 15.8% and 17.7% respectively in January 2018.
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.5% in February 2019, up from 1.4% in January.
Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in February (3.5%, compared with 2.7% in January), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.4%, compared with 1.8% in January), services (1.3%, compared with 1.6% in January) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with January).
Meanwhile, harmonized CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco rose 1.0% y/y in February compared with an increase of 1.1% in January. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase.
According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, the headline seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 52.0 in February, down from a revised reading of 52.6 in January (originally reported as 52.8). The PMI is currently at its second-lowest level since July 2016 – the month following the EU referendum.
Although the trend in manufacturing output improved slightly in February, this mainly reflected efforts to reduce backlogs of work and build stocks of finished products in advance of Brexit. Growth of new order inflows eased to near-stagnation, amid signs of a slowing domestic market and a further drop in new export orders. Companies linked lower overseas demand to weaker global economic growth, especially in Europe. Manufacturers' optimism regarding future output fell to its lowest level in the series history in February. Manufacturers cut back on employment for the second consecutive month, with the rate of job losses the steepest since February 2013.
Input cost inflationary pressures continued to ease in February, with the rate of increase the lowest since April 2016. Manufacturers were still able to pass on part of the rise to clients, leading to a further increase in selling prices.
According to the report from IHS Markit. in February manufacturing PMI slipping below 50.0 for the first time since June 2013. After accounting for seasonality, the PMI recorded 49.3, down from 50.5 in January. Although slight, the contraction signalled in February ended a run of growth in the manufacturing economy that had stretched to over five-and-a-half years.
By market group, weakness was again most apparent in the intermediate and investment goods sectors. Both recorded deteriorations in operating conditions compared to the previous month. In contrast, consumer goods continued to expand, albeit at a modest pace that was the weakest seen since July 2016.
By country, the weakest performers were Germany and Italy. The PMI for Germany slipped further below the 50.0 mark to record a 74-month low, whilst Italy saw its manufacturing PMI record its lowest level in nearly six years. Meanwhile, growth improved slightly in France, but remained historically weak, whilst there were deteriorations in growth seen in Austria and the Netherlands. Greece and Ireland bucked the general trend by recording stronger PMI readings in February.
According to the report from Federal Employment Agency, the unemployment rate remained at 5.0 percent in February, the lowest since German reunification in 1990.
Data also showed, jobless total fell far more than expected in February, boosting expectations that private consumption will underpin growth in Europe's largest economy this year. The number of people out of work decreased by 21,000 to 2.236 million, seasonally-adjusted data showed. That compared with the forecast for a drop of 5,000 and decreased by 2,000 in January
ING discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and adopts a bullish bias on a multi-days basis, highlighting the significance of a close above the EMA-200 at 110.96 to pave the way for further gains towards 111.70-112.70.
"A close above the EMA-200 line suggests an immediate continuation of the uptrend with next strong resistance coming in between the horizontal line around 111.70 and the long-term falling trend line around 112.70," NAB adds.
According to the report from IHS Markit, the IHS Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI – a composite single figure indicator of manufacturing performance – posted a level of 49.9 in February. Down from 52.4 in January, the PMI slipped below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time since November 2013 to thereby bring an end to more than five years of continuous sector growth. Panellists commented on a challenging economic environment in February, especially in key export markets.
The latest survey showed that new orders declined for the first time since July 2016, undermined in the main by a similar-sized fall in new export work. The deterioration in foreign orders was the first for nearly six years and reflected weakening demand in neighbouring European countries plus falling sales to China. Growth in production was undermined by the fall in new work. Although output rose since the previous month, it did so marginally and at the weakest rate in the current sequence of growth (which stretches back to December 2013).
According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD has started to approach its 6 month resistance line at 1.1457 and directly above here lies the 200 day MA at 1.1507.
“It has not cleared the 100 day MA at 1.1387 yet but we look for it to remain underpinned by the 1.1216 November low. We continue to favour recovery. Above the 200 day MA will re-target the 1.1623 mid October high and slightly longer term we look for gains to 1.1685, the 55 week MA,” Jones said.
According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in January 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month.
Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.4% in January 2019 compared with the previous year. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 0.3%.
Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 0.4% decrease in nominal turnover in January 2019 compared with January 2018 (in real terms –0.4%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in nominal turnover of 0.8% (in real terms –0.2%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal negative of 1.4% (in real terms –1.0%).
According to provisional data from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in January 2019 was in real terms 2.6% and in nominal terms 3.6% larger than in January 2018. The number of days open for sale was 26 in January 2019 and in January 2018. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, the January turnover was in real and in nominal terms 3.3% higher than in December 2018.
Separate data from Destatis showed, in January 2019, 44.7 million persons resident in German. Compared with January 2018, the number of persons in employment increased by 1.1% (+483,000). This year-on-year change rate is the same as in the two last months of 2018. In January 2019, roughly 1.5 million people were unemployed, 71,000 fewer than a year earlier.
Results of the labour force survey show that there were 1.47 million unemployed in January 2019. Their number increased by 133,000 on December. When adjusted for seasonal and irregular effects, the number of unemployed stood at 1.41 million in January 2019. It was thus by 13,000 people lower than in the previous month. The adjusted unemployment rate declined to 3.2% in January 2019.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1438 (6391)
$1.1417 (1455)
$1.1405 (1135)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1373
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1356 (4865)
$1.1326 (2545)
$1.1288 (5198)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 99802 contracts (according to data from February, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (6391);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3361 (1062)
$1.3319 (2972)
$1.3297 (4044)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3255
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3191 (522)
$1.3159 (759)
$1.3122 (788)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 8 is 41298 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (4044);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 35456 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (1897);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 28
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 66.35 | -0.23 |
WTI | 57.41 | 0.58 |
Silver | 15.58 | -0.89 |
Gold | 1313.061 | -0.49 |
Palladium | 1545.34 | 1.02 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -171.35 | 21385.16 | -0.79 |
Hang Seng | -124.26 | 28633.18 | -0.43 |
KOSPI | -39.35 | 2195.44 | -1.76 |
ASX 200 | 18.7 | 6169 | 0.3 |
FTSE 100 | -32.47 | 7074.73 | -0.46 |
DAX | 28.31 | 11515.64 | 0.25 |
Dow Jones | -69.16 | 25916 | -0.27 |
S&P 500 | -7.89 | 2784.49 | -0.28 |
NASDAQ Composite | -21.98 | 7532.53 | -0.29 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.70925 | -0.65 |
EURJPY | 126.637 | 0.36 |
EURUSD | 1.13695 | 0.01 |
GBPJPY | 147.699 | -0 |
GBPUSD | 1.32607 | -0.35 |
NZDUSD | 0.68078 | -0.55 |
USDCAD | 1.31741 | 0.15 |
USDCHF | 0.9978 | -0.32 |
USDJPY | 111.376 | 0.35 |
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