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- USD: Too early to buy into the negative USD story - Nordea
USD: Too early to buy into the negative USD story - Nordea
eFXdata reports that Nordea Research discusses the USD outlook and adopts a bearish bias in the medium-term but warns that it's too early to position structurally for such weakness.
"The launch of the QE-ternity program from the Fed will likely prove to be a material negative USD game-changer down the road. A LOT of new USDs will be printed, which is usually a USD negative story, but we are not sure that QE matters a lot in the short term, if curfews are prolonged and disinflationary risks remain high. So far, the price action since the Fed launched the QE-bazooka has been supportive of inflation expectations, which is a negative USD story. Ultimately, we remain firm that a negative USD bias is very warranted over the next 6-12 months (10% weaker USD is not out of the question), but we think it is too early to really buy into the negative USD story," Nordea notes.
"In a complete meltdown globally, we would reckon that EUR/USD could go to parity or even below (Cable would like also go to parity), but we are not ready to call for such a scenario, but consider the tail risk very fat on the global scenario - also in FX space," Nordea adds.
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